Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) reported first-quarter numbers earlier in the week. It wasn't an awesome report by any stretch of the imagination. On a reported basis, every important metric was down. Revenues down 23%. Earnings per share down 61%. On an adjusted basis, Dell did beat expectations by a penny, coming in at $0.24 per share.
Now, what should we make of this? Indeed, I'm in something of a tough position over Dell. I was pretty bearish on the stock back in November. I still feel bearish, to be honest. Who wouldn't? A one-penny beat in this case just doesn't encourage me. PC sales have been challenged, and as my colleague Jamie Dlugosch pointed out, Dell just can't be considered a best-of-breed company. When you think best-of-breed computer stocks these days, you probably will think of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) first.
Yet, I do feel ambiguous about Dell at this point. Why? I'm wondering if it might be time to buy in. After all, the markets have been acting a lot better. Remember when we were wondering when Dow 5,000 might be approaching?
Well, I wish Dell gave me some better data to work with. The cash-flow statement wasn't bad, and management was quick to point that out right in the headline of the release. But is that enough to get me to buy? The bigger positive to me is the fact that the 52-week low on the stock is $7.84. Dell shares closed on Friday at $11.57.
So, we've got a nice bounce off the low. We've got better market sentiment. And the stock has been doing well this year so far, as colleague Trey Thoelcke mentioned in his Dell earnings preview. It could be a nice set-up.
Still, I think Dell is risky because of the fundamental data expressed in the quarter. If you're good at trading, you might want to check out the stock. I'm going to be looking at Dell carefully, but I have to admit that I might want to get back in Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) instead. That's the tech stock I have my eye on most strongly at this time. At least with Microsoft, you know that it sells its software on machines by Dell, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and others. So, why just risk your money on Dell when you can risk your money on the company that holds a benign monopoly on the operating system?
In conclusion, I acknowledge that Dell could rise, but I just don't think it's a stock I'd feel 100% comfortable holding. I'll have to see; maybe I'll wait for the Q2 data. If you do buy, make sure you've got an appropriate stop in place to limit loss exposure.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.




Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-01-2009 @ 10:10AM
lordkamic said...
msft is a safe bet! all in!