On Friday June 5, the U.S. Labor Department will release the unemployment numbers for May. Here are some guesstimates from leading economists:
- The median of 59 estimates will show that unemployment is at 9.2%, the highest since 1983.
- The jobless rate may reach 10% by the end of the year.
- Estimates are that payrolls fell by 521,000 in May after declining by 539,000 in April.
- The median of 60 estimates showed the job losses peaked at 741,000 in January.
- The economy has lost 5.7 million jobs since December 2007.
- Keep in mind that we still have the bankruptcy of Chrysler and possibly GM. The job losses for these two firms have not been tallied yet.
- We know that Chrysler will close 789 dealerships.
- Manufacturing is still in a crisis mode. The estimates are for a loss of 150,000 jobs after losing 149,000 in April.
- With unemployment rising, it is only common sense that consumer spending is taking a hit. Purchases fell in April for the second straight month.
- Incomes declined for the sixth time in the last seven months.
- The Institute for Supply Management's factory index rose to 42 in May from 40.1 in April but it is still below 50. A reading below 50 signals contraction.
On the brighter side, manufacturers' orders placed with factories rose 0.8% in April, the second gain for the year. The Tempe Arizona-based group's gauge of non-manufacturing businesses most likely increased to 45 in May from 43.7 in April. Stocks have rallied with the S&P up 36% since March 9. Finally, Americans who signed contracts to buy previously owned homes rose in April for the third month in a row.
Well, now you are probably asking what does all this mean? A common sense answer would be that with unemployment rising, Americans have less money to spend and less purchases will continue to be a drag on the economy.
And one final note. We really don't have a reliable index to measure the hardships and misery that the nearly 6 million persons are going through.
With all of this, do you see the economy getting better?










