AOL Money & Finance

What are the guesstimates for Friday's unemployment report?

On Friday June 5, the U.S. Labor Department will release the unemployment numbers for May. Here are some guesstimates from leading economists:

  • The median of 59 estimates will show that unemployment is at 9.2%, the highest since 1983.
  • The jobless rate may reach 10% by the end of the year.
  • Estimates are that payrolls fell by 521,000 in May after declining by 539,000 in April.
  • The median of 60 estimates showed the job losses peaked at 741,000 in January.
  • The economy has lost 5.7 million jobs since December 2007.
  • Keep in mind that we still have the bankruptcy of Chrysler and possibly GM. The job losses for these two firms have not been tallied yet.
  • We know that Chrysler will close 789 dealerships.
  • Manufacturing is still in a crisis mode. The estimates are for a loss of 150,000 jobs after losing 149,000 in April.
  • With unemployment rising, it is only common sense that consumer spending is taking a hit. Purchases fell in April for the second straight month.
  • Incomes declined for the sixth time in the last seven months.
  • The Institute for Supply Management's factory index rose to 42 in May from 40.1 in April but it is still below 50. A reading below 50 signals contraction.

On the brighter side, manufacturers' orders placed with factories rose 0.8% in April, the second gain for the year. The Tempe Arizona-based group's gauge of non-manufacturing businesses most likely increased to 45 in May from 43.7 in April. Stocks have rallied with the S&P up 36% since March 9. Finally, Americans who signed contracts to buy previously owned homes rose in April for the third month in a row.

Well, now you are probably asking what does all this mean? A common sense answer would be that with unemployment rising, Americans have less money to spend and less purchases will continue to be a drag on the economy.

And one final note. We really don't have a reliable index to measure the hardships and misery that the nearly 6 million persons are going through.

With all of this, do you see the economy getting better?

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 10:18 AM

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