Longer-term, the prospects for ICE look very good. Support from banks regarding a credit default swap clearing house has grown since ICE starting clearing trades earlier this year; clearing swaps should add substantially to revenue in FY2010. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for ICE are $4.45 to $5.28.

Other positives: exchange-based trading for most derivatives will become the norm, adding more revenue to ICE fixed-cost platform; reports that the de-leveraged post-financial crisis would slow energy product trading volumes to a crawl appear to have been premature: oil futures and related products are hanging in there, and a sustained rebound in oil prices in FY2010 would bolster that trend. Agriculture futures revenue should also register impressive gains in FY2010.

The risks include 1) the failure of the U.S. and global economies to begin to recover as expected in Q3/Q4, and 2) any regulatory changes that would take futures trading out of the private sector. With a P/E around 28, ICE is pricey, but it's justified given the growth prospects for futures contracts and derivatives.

Stock Analysis: Intercontinental Exchange is a moderate-risk stock. Consider buying a 25% position in ICE on a pullback to $110 or $105; then buy another 25% in three months, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Note: Don't Buy ICE if it pulls-back below $100. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 50% of your ICE position in the first half of 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $45.

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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.