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Starbucks: Another day, another change

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If it's Wednesday, that means another change at Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), right? Reuters is reporting that SBUX is "reworking 90 percent of its baked goods." The latest move by the caffeine king is to start selling baked goods without high-fructose corn syrup or artificial flavors and dyes. The company will also introduce salads and other items -- nothing like a coffee and some salad, right?

According to Michelle Gass, SBUX's executive vice president of marketing, "Food has been the Achilles' heel of the company. [...] That statement will be long buried after we launch this program." The new campaign from SBUX will be promoted as "Real Food. Simply Delicious." and is an extension of last year's healthy campaign.

SBUX insists that prices will not go up following the health-conscious move. Furthermore, the company is supposedly testing a Frappuccino formula that mirrors its moves in the food world. According to the article, 17% of SBUX's sales came from food in 2008, up from 15% in 2006.

I don't know much about high-fructose corn syrup, but from all accounts, getting rid of this sweetener is a good move, so I will applaud SBUX in this instance. That said, the company needs to try and find a way to lower its prices in order to compete with the likes of McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) and Dunkin' Donuts.

The problem with offering food is that SBUX is trying to carve out a niche against companies that are already known more for their food than their coffee. At McDonald's, one can often get a breakfast sandwich and a small coffee for a couple of bucks -- less than half the cost of one of SBUX's drinks.

The business model isn't working, although the stock is in a bit of an intermediate-term rally. Watch for the prosperity to come to an end when the stock runs headlong into its 20-month moving average. The last time SBUX managed to close atop this trendline was February 2007, so to say that this resistance is well established would be a bit of an understatement.

SBUX's CEO Howard Schultz is grasping at straws here ladies and gents. SBUX needs to close down some of its outlets. It simply expanded too far, too fast. It needs to get some consistency in the brand and lower its prices, then it may be able to break the stranglehold McDonald's and Dunkin' Donuts have on the coffee world.
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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 08:26 PM

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