Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip "under the radar."Case in point: Almost every investor and citizen knows that Americans are saving more. But do you know the economic implications of that higher savings rate?
The U.S. savings rate rose to a 5.7% annualized rate in April, according to U.S Commerce Department data, after almost five years in which the nation did not save a dime -- the nation actually spent more than it had in the 2002-2007 period. Moreover, Americans had saved less than 10% of their income for about two decades.
Sudden savers
What's driving the higher savings rate? Several factors. First, the recession and concerns that the economy may worsen still (or at least not recover as anticipated later this year) are prompting many Americans to increase their safety cushion. Second, Americans' nest eggs in general have been depleted by the 2008-2009 stock market decline, housing sector recession, and by stagnant incomes for many job classifications.
The economic implications of the higher savings rate? There's an upside and a downside. The benefits include greater capital available for investment -- something the U.S. really needs -- as well more Americans better-equipped to deal with future needs/goals. As a nation, the United States really needs to, and can benefit from, saving more: the nation once saved more than 10% of its income (that last occurred in the 1970s), and a high savings rate definitely is one sign of an advanced economy that can live within its means.
The downside? At least short-term, that higher savings rate means the commerce that's dependent on consumer spending -- like retail stores, restaurants, even some entertainment venues and night clubs -- will likely contract: there simply will be fewer dollars to go around. The nation's malls have already experienced a sizable downturn in traffic and revenue: don't look for the mall trend to reverse any time soon. Hotels and other resorts are likely to be hit hard, as well, especially if they're dependent on discretionary spending/leisure dollars.
And, by extension, employment in these sectors -- particularly retail and restaurants -- has fallen and will likely continue to fall. Employees and managers in these sectors will have to be retrained to meet the needs of the restructured U.S. economy: today's ex-clothing store attendant or restaurant chain waiter may be tomorrow's health care worker or solar panel/solar heating installation specialist.
Will there be enough jobs created in the restructured U.S. economy? It's too soon to tell. But one thing is certain: the U.S.'s higher savings rate guarantees that there will be fewer dollars spent on discretionary purchases in the immediate years ahead.



Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-04-2009 @ 9:32AM
PHIL said...
I lost my full time job 2 months a go ,so i did apply for loan
modification with my mortgage ( SPECIALIZED LOAN SERVICING LLC )
my int/rate is 9.25 % they just told me today that I was denied
because I am not working .
I RECEVE UNEMPLYEMENT AND MY WIFE WORK FULL TIME.
and I WILL NEED TO PAID FOR THE EXTERIOR APPRAISAL THEY DID ( $
115.00 )
IT'S ...............................
6-04-2009 @ 10:10AM
nickerson said...
My advice to the folks is save every dime you can. Don't spend anymore than you have too. Cut up all rpt all your credit cards. Cancel all your newspapers and mags, if you get any people begging for money out of Washington D.C., send the mail to the Whitehouse. Know how these folks operate, most of the money they beg for goes to pay some slime bags salary, give us a break. If you want to give, make your checks to a local outfit, don't send a dime outside your local area. Don't buy anything made by the unions until the workers throw out the thugs at the top, vote against this radical idea of a open ballot, this is just thug tactics and been in a union and know who they operate.
6-04-2009 @ 2:43PM
puppy said...
Better save for when gas passes $4.00 per gallon again, it's apparently on its way!
6-16-2009 @ 8:33PM
L R Adams said...
*U.S. savings rate rises to 5.7%, a 14-year high*. Why is this a surprise*. The government is bailing out the idiots and morons that bought houses they couldn*t afford. Billions given to incompetent car manufactures that lost over 50 percent of their market share to Japan* Germany* and South Korea*. Now they want us to spend our household income that we need for food* clothes* and other necessities to stimulate the economy. Then to help they give us a **200.00 up your nose check in good faith. I*ll tell you what* you go first and if it works out and the economy gets better* I*ll be right behind you. But until I see some positive results my money stays in my pocket and my discretionary money goes into saving.