Cramer on BloggingStocks: Can the market rally without oil?


TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that it is too easy to sit here and take direction from the oil futures.

The one-wayness of this new market, the one that started with banks, tech and oil and that has now has come back down to just oil, isn't something that can last. We can't come in here every day and know that the news is not so hot, and what Ben Bernanke said yesterday about the deficit and where he thinks we are is not so hot, and have all of those reasons for a pause trumped by a dollar rise in the oil futures.

It just doesn't make sense, but it is where we are.

It makes things more treacherous than they should be because we all learned a vital lesson last year, which is that a $2 billion to $3 billion hedge fund in cahoots with another $2 billion to $3 billion hedge fund can easily rig the oil futures higher on no volume. So it looks like oil's going up, but then a real seller comes in, knocks it down, and the S&P futures tumble right along with it.

It's the type of thing that causes an air pocket that could be hazardous.

I am thinking that we have to muddle through here and see if this market can rally without oil.

It just seems like it is too easy to sit here and watch the oil futures and get the direction from it.

I have committed a lot of cash to Action Alerts PLUS but found myself taking some profits yesterday simply because I do not like being hostage to oil and because it isn't like we are seeing anything major happening right now in earnings. We have an employment number that we all know will be bad.

Until the direct linkage is broken, I just can't trust it. Oil is too easily manipulated for my taste, and we have a government that just seems clueless to these manipulations and to the overpowering ETFs that are also used to take commodities up and down with ease.

I am waiting for clarity.

Random musings: The aerospace cycle is one nugget of good news right now. You can see that coming, and it is good for Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take) and great for Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) because Honeywell is in no matter who wins.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Honeywell.
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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 01:00 PM

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