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Wal-Mart vows to buy back shares and keep recession customers


Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) has fared better than just about anyone in the recession, but its stock is down 9% so far for 2009. Why? Wal-Mart shares outperformed the market by a wide margin in 2008, but now that many investors are looking to prepare their portfolios to profit from a turnaround, there is concern that Wal-Mart will be unable to sustain its momentum once people spend more money.

To capitalize on the stock price pullback, Wal-Mart announced that it would spend as much as $15 billion to buy back its own stock. And at the company's annual meeting on Friday, recently-installed CEO Mike Duke said that "Our customers will stay with us when this economy turns around and they have more discretionary spending, I promise."

The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports that Mr. Duke also expressed his interesting in moving the company in a more socially-conscious direction, including a concerted effort to promote more women into the company's executive ranks.

But the most important question for shareholders is the first one: Given that Wal-Mart performed exceptionally well during a time of economic hardship, how likely is that the company will underperform when the economy strengthens? I'd say it's extremely likely, and that the promises of a CEO at an annual meeting should, as Catullus wrote about the words of a woman in love, be written in the sand and running water.

Wal-Mart has benefited from a tradedown effect, but remember that this is America. As soon as we have enough money to shop at higher-end stores, shop at higher-end stores we will.

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