In celebration of Barry Ritholtz's critically-acclaimed new book Bailout Nation, he held The Big Picture Conference, which I was fortunate to attend.
Here are the main points from the most reputable speakers, Congressman Alan Grayson, Nassim Taleb, Doug Kass, and Josh Rosner.
Florida Congressman Alan Grayson discussed how systemic risk is an excuse for socialism and that interconnectedness is the main reason that these institutions are "too big to fail." In fact, these institutions no longer hold social or economic purpose, they are simply too big to exist.
His thesis is that we have arrived at a point of insolvency, where a domino effect is inevitable as all accountability is lost. In a conversation with Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner, Geithner blatantly admitted, "There is no clear answer or solution."
After all, Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) became derivative casinos, dabbling in mortgages with $270 billion in derivative exposure compared to $120 billion in late mortgages, to be exact. It's been purely a lack of regulation and greed that has brought us to this point and if we placed the $10 trillion bailout into the hands of the American people, $30,000 would be distributed to every man, woman, and child. This would be enough to pay off the average rent or mortgage for an entire year.
Famed author of The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb said this is a winner-take-all economy, where the rise is almost as fast as the fall. The fact is that most corporations are overleveraged; we are tampering with capitalism and increasing the fragility of the U.S. stock market. Government and Wall Street Ph.D.'s are unaware of the extent of their own controls; they continue to rate inventory with mark-to-market pricing and receive unethical salaries.
The evolution of capitalism has created a society of academically illiterate individuals, ignoring regulations in order to build returns year-over-year. Yes, greed is human nature in finance, but it has also now been incorporated into a wide array of complex financial products.
The relationship between equity and debt is illusive as our generation is draining equity from their homes, obtaining interest-only products, and leveraging their lifestyles in an unsustainable fashion. This myopia of macroeconomists can be seen through the FDIC, SEC, and the Fed.
Hedge fund manager Doug Kass started by saying Bush, Paulson, and Bernanke all fell asleep at the wheel, as is visible in our equities market. The past year is a quintessential example of speculative or "Ponzi" finance, as speculation far surpassed production.
There is no current secular growth, which leads fund managers, including himself, to take a short position on the U.S. because we are in an oligopolistic banking environment where few players are able to greatly influence prices, as well as have measurable impact on competition.
Inflows to the small and micro cap market will suffer tremendously and the overall economy will inevitably need years for recovery. A heavily indebted consumer holds the keys to corporations with painfully low profit margins so this deleterious cycle is far from over.
Housing and mortgage research consultant Josh Rosner said the government will soon retreat from their spending spree and we will see the consequences of the bailout. The increase of default, bankruptcy, and unemployment is a clear catalyst for panic.
He continued, on about how housing market participants now see their home without equity as a rental with debt. The lack of structural change to date is also a factor effecting our future with more effective predator lending, such as online approval, automated appraisal, mortgage interest deductions, lower underlying collateral, and loan modifications.
The market is quickly depreciating with 14 consecutive interest increases, and we are relying in incompetent analysts from dinosaur rating agencies. We are asking for a relapse!











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-08-2009 @ 2:42PM
Iridium said...
Has Alan Grayson been reading my posts over the past year or so?
Too big to fail is too big to exist. He is 100% correct.
6-08-2009 @ 4:23PM
Jeremiah said...
This comment from the article says it all.
Florida Congressman Alan Grayson discussed how systemic risk is an excuse for socialism and that interconnectedness is the main reason that these institutions are "too big to fail." In fact, these institutions no longer hold social or economic purpose, they are simply too big to exist.
His thesis is that we have arrived at a point of insolvency, where a domino effect is inevitable as all accountability is lost. In a conversation with Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner, Geithner blatantly admitted, "There is no clear answer or solution."
6-08-2009 @ 5:35PM
william lindblad said...
Yes, people were sleeping - a lot of them. The points made are all valid, but this situation goes way beyond them, both in time and scope. Many of us little people, as Iridium pointed out, have been clamoring for intervention - for years.
Schiff and Roubini have been called Dr. Doom and associate and both have been in the news for a long time. Therefore, writing a book on all of the very obvious ills is a tad late.
The government presently calls this mess a "very deep recession". Two years ago I coined DIM for depression in making. Three years ago I coined the word "mess" and that stuck.
There is no rocket science here. The events that brought us to this point were so blatantly obvious that they should not have been ignored and the main reason that this occurred is simply because Congress is run by PAC's and special interests.
The House and Senate have committees on banking and finance. They hold hearings. They hear what they want to hear and anyone stating that something was wrong was not invited back.
One can write all the book that they want. One can attend every conference. Where was everybody three years ago?
6-16-2009 @ 6:28AM
charleswillett1606 said...
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