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The 'big picture' of our economy

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In celebration of Barry Ritholtz's critically-acclaimed new book Bailout Nation, he held The Big Picture Conference, which I was fortunate to attend.

Here are the main points from the most reputable speakers, Congressman Alan Grayson, Nassim Taleb, Doug Kass, and Josh Rosner.

Florida Congressman Alan Grayson discussed how systemic risk is an excuse for socialism and that interconnectedness is the main reason that these institutions are "too big to fail." In fact, these institutions no longer hold social or economic purpose, they are simply too big to exist.

His thesis is that we have arrived at a point of insolvency, where a domino effect is inevitable as all accountability is lost. In a conversation with Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner, Geithner blatantly admitted, "There is no clear answer or solution."

After all, Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) became derivative casinos, dabbling in mortgages with $270 billion in derivative exposure compared to $120 billion in late mortgages, to be exact. It's been purely a lack of regulation and greed that has brought us to this point and if we placed the $10 trillion bailout into the hands of the American people, $30,000 would be distributed to every man, woman, and child. This would be enough to pay off the average rent or mortgage for an entire year.

Famed author of The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb said this is a winner-take-all economy, where the rise is almost as fast as the fall. The fact is that most corporations are overleveraged; we are tampering with capitalism and increasing the fragility of the U.S. stock market. Government and Wall Street Ph.D.'s are unaware of the extent of their own controls; they continue to rate inventory with mark-to-market pricing and receive unethical salaries.

The evolution of capitalism has created a society of academically illiterate individuals, ignoring regulations in order to build returns year-over-year. Yes, greed is human nature in finance, but it has also now been incorporated into a wide array of complex financial products.

The relationship between equity and debt is illusive as our generation is draining equity from their homes, obtaining interest-only products, and leveraging their lifestyles in an unsustainable fashion. This myopia of macroeconomists can be seen through the FDIC, SEC, and the Fed.

Hedge fund manager Doug Kass started by saying Bush, Paulson, and Bernanke all fell asleep at the wheel, as is visible in our equities market. The past year is a quintessential example of speculative or "Ponzi" finance, as speculation far surpassed production.

There is no current secular growth, which leads fund managers, including himself, to take a short position on the U.S. because we are in an oligopolistic banking environment where few players are able to greatly influence prices, as well as have measurable impact on competition.

Inflows to the small and micro cap market will suffer tremendously and the overall economy will inevitably need years for recovery. A heavily indebted consumer holds the keys to corporations with painfully low profit margins so this deleterious cycle is far from over.

Housing and mortgage research consultant Josh Rosner said the government will soon retreat from their spending spree and we will see the consequences of the bailout. The increase of default, bankruptcy, and unemployment is a clear catalyst for panic.

He continued, on about how housing market participants now see their home without equity as a rental with debt. The lack of structural change to date is also a factor effecting our future with more effective predator lending, such as online approval, automated appraisal, mortgage interest deductions, lower underlying collateral, and loan modifications.

The market is quickly depreciating with 14 consecutive interest increases, and we are relying in incompetent analysts from dinosaur rating agencies. We are asking for a relapse!

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 05:04 AM

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