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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Rolling back the clock

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we're trying to repeal what happened financially last year. Will it lead to strength industrially?

How low were we really? What was the real baseline pre-Lehman Brothers? What was going on in the country and the world before that financial atomic bomb dropped?

I struggle over that now, about what the true price of copper should be, about what the true price of oil should be, about the price of steel, all kinds of things. I try to figure out what the prices for everything were going to be before Lehman.

What was going to happen? What would have happened if AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) hadn't been an allegedly criminal enterprise? What was the trend line? What would have occurred if our banks weren't all about to fail?

You have to ask yourself this, because otherwise you really have had such huge gains in just about everything, especially commodities, and you would have to ring the register on just about everything given where we came from. It almost seems reckless not to. The increases in steel and copper and oil are so bold and strong and relentless that you would have to be, were we operating full-tilt somewhere even though it is obvious that the full tilt is not here. Because we don't see it, the whole thing feels ridiculously inflated and driven totally by speculators.

When coming in today, I'm personally blown away by the strength in EVERYTHING and I am a BULL. Who knows what others must be thinking, particularly the hedge fund managers still playing that mixed book game who fall by the wayside every day.

I know the worries will be there today. Oil's too high. Copper is too high. Asia's too high. Everything's too high.

But I come back and say, "Look, we are simply trying to figure out where we would be if the Western financial world hadn't collapsed artificially over $4 trillion in bad mortgages that are now being worked through."

The countries that were less affected by the mortgage crisis, the Asian countries, are without doubt in total boom, just boom, aided by a tech environment that is beginning to look like the best in years because of wireless Internet.

Resource-rich Latin America's back in boom with new oil finds that give Brazil a total South Arabia feel to it.

Europe's coming out of a depression and we are doing better than we have been because real estate is coming back so fast even as we are told it is going lower.

All of these are now taking us to a world that is rolling back the clock by the day. It feels like last month we rolled back AIG, this month Lehman and Merrill. I figure next month we'll roll back Wachovia and Washington Mutual and then the month after that we'll roll back National City and Bear Stearns.

Yes, we are basically repealing everything that happened financially last year. Will it lead to strength industrially?

It hasn't yet, here.

But it is leading to a world where we all want a little more risk. For example, I want the risk of real estate and real estate bonds and commercial real estate -- and those are all areas that were supposed to be killing us.

Others want the risk of secured debt and even unsecured debt now that the auto mess is behind us.

I don't know where the true commodity baseline should be in light of all of that desire for more risk. I don't want to endlessly simplify it as "a play on the weak dollar" because that didn't work last time as a concept, and it won't get you anywhere this time either. You just played until you hit the retaining wall.

I am, though, beginning to believe that what happened is we skipped a big beat in September last year and we are now back to where we were beating in August, and the climb you are seeing in the averages is nothing more than the recovery to pre-Lehman. When we get there, in full, with all of the prices intact of the companies that are still intact (excluding General Motors (OTC: GMGMQ) (Cramer's Take), AIG, Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take), and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take)) then we will be too high.

But maybe not until then. So, the worries will continue to be surmounted and the usual suspects -- oil, finance and tech -- get reached for, once again, as it looks like they will be all the way into the end of the quarter.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
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Last updated: November 09, 2009: 07:37 AM

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