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Stagflation concerns in U.S. rising along with oil's price

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Stagflation, a period when inflation re-heats despite stagnant or non-existent economic growth, may be rearing its ugly head again.

And the culprit, or primary cause? The usual suspect: rising oil prices, many economists agree. Oil traded Tuesday above $70 per barrel -- a roughly 100% rise in six months.



1970s: stagflation-plagued

Stagflation plagued the U.S. economy during the the 1970s, when initially government spending for the Vietnam War combined with the first oil shock to accelerate inflation. The quintupling of oil prices in 1973-74 plunged the U.S. economy into a recession, but high inflation remained.

The nation suffered with above-average inflation until 1982, when a very-restrictive monetary policy led by then U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker finally wrung inflation out of the system. A cut in the growth of government spending assisted Volcker's monetary policy, with the U.S. economy resuming a healthier, low-inflation GDP growth track in 1982.

Today, in 2009, increases in the price of commodities (gold, copper, coal) threaten a new round of cost increases for the U.S. economy despite a 9.4% unemployment rate and a pronounced recession that will easily exceed 18 months in length. Those price increases further cut Americans' disposable income, and represent yet another impediment to increasing aggregate demand -- something the U.S. economy sorely needs.

To be sure, other factors -- not just rising oil and other commodity prices – can cause inflation to rise, but thus far, the other causal factors in the U.S. are inert. There's virtually no wage pressure, excess cash from the stock market is modest, and median home prices have declined for more than two years. If high oil prices persist, it looks like high energy costs could ratchet-up residential and commercial costs at the worst possible time.

Economic Analysis: The U.S.'s battles with oil shock-induced inflation underscores the folly of a lack of a national energy policy. Conservative economists talk about oil, and particular about imported oil, as being a great, innocuous energy source for the U.S. because it's the cheapest energy form in the market, hence there's no need to increase auto and business energy efficiency beyond what the market says should occur.

Yet nothing could be further from the truth: on a cyclical basis, oil has repeatedly increased inflation in the U.S. and caused recessions. Hence, the sooner the U.S. increases the fuel efficiency of its cars, homes, and businesses -- and develops alternative energy sources to displace oil use -- the sooner it will decrease its vulnerability to oil-fed inflation and one source of economic disruption. And just imagine the increased foreign policy flexibility the nation would have if it did not have to depend on oil shipped from the Middle East and elsewhere to meet its energy needs?

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 07:15 AM

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