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Will Congress' 'cash for clunkers' boost U.S. GDP?

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The 'cash for-clunkers' cash payment is now likely to receive Congressional approval, something yours truly didn't think would occur six months ago.

Dueling versions of the bill that would grant a voucher worth $3,500-$4,500 to consumers who trade-in their gas-guzzling cars and trucks for more fuel-efficient vehicles are winding themselves through Congress. The House version passed 298-119, Bloomberg News reported. A vote on the Senate version is expected soon. In a nutshell, car purchases get $4,500 for a vehicle that improves mileage by at least 10 miles per gallon, $3,500 if the new vehicle ups mileage by at least four miles per gallon.


Typically, I'd favor a bill like the above, during a recession, on stimulus grounds, but this one has multiple trade-offs, so BloggingStocks distracted economist David H. Wang from his economic modeling for a moment to get his analysis of the potential stimulus program.

"On the one hand, it will stimulate demand for new vehicles. More people, perhaps as many as 2 million more people will buy a new car, motivated by the cash incentive," Wang said. "And it would increase overall U.S. fuel efficiency."

"On the other hand, what we do today will likely take away from consumption later. At least that has been the case with auto purchases," Wang said. "There also is the issue of delaying current sales, if the legislation does not pass soon. Tens of thousands of Americans are delaying a purchase, waiting for this bill, so I would advise Congress to definitively pass the bill or reject it, but don't let the issue linger unresolved."

Auto Sector/Economic Analysis: The view from here argues a universal rebate for all Americans over age 16 would stimulate U.S. GDP more, but in lieu of the above, Congress should approve the auto purchase subsidy.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 10:37 AM

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