There's been some news on the Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) Kindle, the company's electronic substitute for real paper books. According to this source, everything is coming along fine for the product from a statistical point of view. An estimate of Kindle sales from Citigroup Global Markets puts the number of units sold last year at 500,000. By 2010, it's said that the Kindle may lead to $1.2 billion of derivative sales. I was surprised to learn that this sales number would possibly represent 4% of Amazon's top line.
This news item made me want to look back at my coverage of Amazon's latest earnings quarter. At the time, I was hesitant about considering putting new money to work into this name. While the longer-term trend of the stock was obviously quite attractive, the shorter-term trend could have been at risk.
I retain the same feeling. Even with this Kindle news, I would look for Amazon to perhaps pull back a little more. But I have to admit, the Kindle has succeeded in a greater way than I had anticipated.
It surprises me. I'm not sure I could ever exclusively read books on an ersatz tablet of technology. To be honest, I almost find the idea that the Kindle will grow into such a decent business almost unbelievable. I'm currently in I'll-believe-it-when-I-see-it mode.
Like I say, though, the data does make me think more and more about Amazon. No, it isn't a buy on the news. But the Kindle reminds me of how far Amazon has come. The survival of its business model used to be questioned. Pundits, myself included, always said that Amazon is just a retailer. Why should so much bidding excitement surround a retailer? No, I wasn't a believer. I remember making a little money on Amazon in the past but selling out much too soon. Wow, it seriously just hit me how much money I could have been sitting on had I only held on. Give me a moment, please...
...okay, I'm back. Perhaps the lesson of this Kindle news is that one must be patient with Jeff Bezos and his gang of Internet wizards. They have discovered a great way of combining the blase world of retail with the convenience of the web to create long-term shareholder value. Here I am being a little negative on the Kindle. Here I am pointing out what the news article cited earlier pointed out: Sony (NYSE: SNE) could become a competitive threat in the e-book market. Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), according to Tom Taulli, might try to steal Amazon's thunder by promoting e-books on its own platform. Let's not forget that the more successful the Kindle becomes, the more intense the arena of battle becomes.
For now, I'll just accept that Amazon is here to stay, as is probably the Kindle (I just have to add that probably because I still don't see myself reading the latest Stephen King novel in a digital format). It will help sales, and will possibly add to the excitement of the stock. Again, though, don't buy on a headline about the Kindle. Perform more due diligence. And be patient for the proverbial pullback...
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.










