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What is the good and the bad about the condition of our banks?

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What is the real condition of our banks? Well depends on which glass you are looking at. Is it half full or half empty? Let's look at the good news first:
  • Profits for the bans are up.
  • Bank stocks are surging.
  • The U.S. government gave 10 banks permission to pay back $70 billion of TARP monies.
  • Since January, banks have raised $200 billion and sold $75 billion in debt.
  • Stress tests showed that 19 of the biggest banks needed only $75 billion to withstand a tougher than expected recession.
  • In a press conference, U.S. Treasury Geithner said, "these are early signs of repair and improvement."

Nevertheless, there are signs of underlying problems that banks still have to deal with. Among them are:

  • Fear still lingers of a return to the chaos of last summer and fall when sharp losses depleted the banks' capital and the government had to come to the rescue.
  • According to Marvin J. Miller, Jr., law partner with Winston and Strawn, specialists in bank financing, "the problem hasn't changed."
  • There is growing consensus that unemployment will reach 10% next year.
  • Banks still hold $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans.
  • Corporate loans, credit card debt, and construction loans continue to sour.
  • According to Douglas Elliot, a former investment banker, a miscalculation of just 3% in the value of bank assets would mean another $300 billion shortfall in banks' capital.
  • With first quarter profits puffing up balance sheets, there is little incentive for banks to sell their toxic assets. If they did, their profits would take another nasty hit.
  • On June 3, the FDIC tabled a $250 billion program to buy bad loans.
  • An IMF report in April stated that writedowns at U.S. banks will exceed profits by almost $200 billion through 2010.

Banks are still holding trillions of dollars "off the books." How much of this money is toxic is held secret by bankers. Sooner or later all of this will come home to roost. The public is demanding answers and will not let he matter rest.

Should the banks disclose their off-the-books transactions?

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 08:50 PM

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