The landslide victory of current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the announcement of same, only hours after the voting polls closed, even though paper ballots had to be hand counted, has cast serious doubts about the election results.Last week I wrote of Iran's great potential but today much of that potential has evaporated for the time being, and perhaps for another four years. The rulers of Iran have decided that the devil they know is better than the one they don't. Unfortunately, as far as politicians go, they may have gotten exactly that.
Ahmadinejad will not advance the well being of the people and is likely to wreck the Iranian economy further. Unfortunately on that point he may not be alone. Our leaders have done a pretty good job of wrecking the entire world economy.
That said, there are two very noteworthy differences; even the most feeble of national economies is more resilient than the Iranian economy under its present rule; and we regularly "throw the bums out"! We will see improvement while Iran will be stuck in the mud.
Throwing the bums out every so often is good for the system. Now Iran will further ally themselves with the likes of Cuba (which may be on the mend), Venezuela, which is on the decline, and North Korea, which is an economic basket case.
The Iranians have "chosen" to associate with the worst company, so their economy, despite their oil riches, has a high probability of impoverishing more people. It is no wonder that those that did actually vote for Mr. Ahmadinejad are reported to be the least educated of the population.
Forever the optimist, I would like to think that the rulers of Iran will gain some greater insight into the abyss that awaits them if they stay on their present course for four more years. If they do not, it would seem the tension that has been building up in the country will only get worse. For some in Iran change is a bad thing for others it is an imperative.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-16-2009 @ 12:50AM
Beltway Greg said...
What's four more? Haven't they already wasted about 2500
years of non-stop corrupt monarchy? Iran. Now this one really gets confusing. Ahmadinejad is really only a figurehead. The dude who calls the shots is the Grand Ayatollah whom some believe not to be such a Grand Ayatollah but let's not get too confusing. There's a number of different schools of thought in regard to how this may unfurl. Obviously, the Ayatollah, no fool he, has come to the conclusion that the folks in the street are a little mad and might begin to question his legitimacy if he supports election fraud. So, like a good oracle, he has ordered a review of the results. My guess is that the recount is really just a cooling off period for the angry young men and women in the streets and probably will not change the outcome. (Somebody call James Baker) Or, perhaps in the grandest display of political theater it's time for Ahmadinejad to retire. He's goofy and has become a political and economic liability. It's sort of like replacing Fidel with Raoul. It's really not that much better but we just think it is.
Welcome to the Middle East where kings and queens aren't just the title of an Aerosmith song and youth unemployment is through the roof. In this region the wealth is shared by a rather small group of insiders and the multi-national corporations that love them. Great universities? Great books? Once this region held the key to civilization but with a little help from the CIA, the Shah, and Operation Ajax, and interminable internecine struggles all revolving around religion and black gold anyone of these fiefdoms could slip into the abyss. Think another Afghanistan or a Somalia couldn't occur? Tell it to the Saudis. Once they've seen the bright lights of Riyadh its difficult to keep them down on the Casbah. The problems that Iran is currently facing is just a precursor or shall we say a coming attraction to what this entire region might face in the near future and then we'll have to dust off those plans that Nixon had drawn up to take over the oil fields.
Iran is just the fuse to the demographic bomb that is ticking in the desert sand.
6-16-2009 @ 3:47AM
luweegee3 said...
The only way and I mean the only way the United States of America can conquer or deal with Iran and the free worlds economy is to remove the crude oil off the commoditys market.When the crude is removed off the market it drops in price like a rock in the ocean: reason why: no more investors,making the crude worthless again.That was Ronald reagens worst decision giving into the congress infested oil lobbist back in the 80's where congress forced the President to place the crude on the commoditys market,the rest is history.Remove the crude and watch Iran and the rest of them fall into line
6-16-2009 @ 5:57AM
al coholic said...
I don't know....Iran seems a little different than your average shiekdom. From what I've read there is a decent sized middle class of reasonably enlightened people.
I lived through the hostage situatioln and swore that I would never forgive Iran for that torture of our Embassy personell, but time has changed my mind. Maybe if we apologized to the Iranians for foisting the Shah on them and if they, in turn, admitted wrong doing in their kidnapping of our people we could normalize realations.
We would be taking a step closer to world peace and, as a side benefit, we could once again enjoy Iranian pistacios.
6-16-2009 @ 8:53AM
JERRY said...
The Great and Wonderful Leader is hiding billions in
other country's like the USA....
6-16-2009 @ 4:25PM
Mike O said...
The unelected ruling elite will do anything to hold on to power. They are scared beyond belief as they are now seeing the biggest uprising since the Islamic Revolution that brought them to power in 1979.
What's four more years? Well, America did the same thing in 2004, electing a leader who was clearly steering the U.S. into a ditch both economically and politically. Now we are seeing the same in Iran.
I doubt they will reverse course after a recount and the Revolutionary Guards will prevent... well... another revolution. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next four years... especially the next election.
The bulk of the Iranian population is under 35 and far more liberal than the previous generation. They are smart, well educated, and want to be more open. The problem is that the current elite won't allow this to happen on their watch.
To me, this sounds like a match and gasoline just waiting for a spark.
6-16-2009 @ 10:08AM
Dan Barnett said...
Jerry, Great & Wonderful Leader, that's North Korea, the OTHER Guys building the Bomb.
The first issue is whether the Iranians will continue their Atomic Weapons Program. I'd bet yes, regardless of the election outcome.
Then the issue is what the Israelis do about it. Attack or not. Nuclear or not. I'd guess non-nuclear air strikes.
Then the next question is who joins in on the fighting, whether it stays non-nuclear. Remember Pakistan has an Islamabomb.
Any way you slice it, you have a real mess.
I really don't see what's in it for Iran in cozying up to the Cubans but Cuba today is hardly the international pariah the US made it out to be in the 1960s.
6-16-2009 @ 2:11PM
Rosa said...
Well said Beltway Greg: The median age in Iran is 27 meaning that the "reformist" mindset may stick around for awhile, well at least until the regime kicks the press out and begins systematically killing dissidents. It seems that even as Iranians are protesting in the streets the press has switched to damage control mode, they are making up for their failure to cover this story but embracing the inevitability of Iranian dictatorship. See what I mean: http://www.newsy.com/videos/same_old_same_old
6-16-2009 @ 8:07PM
Beltway Greg said...
Forget all of that irreverent historical garbage and look at it from this perspective. Do you remember the Shakers? Neat group but they banned a few things which essentially doomed their survival. Namely, procreation. Essentially they were a closed system and because they could only grow by having other like minded asexual folks join few did. Of course, they adopted children but who wanted to be adopted by folks who banned sex?
Now how does this relate to the Middle East and/or Iran?
Every religious group or any group for that matter need only look to the Shakers for a warning as to what radical conservativism and unyielding beliefs can cause. Iran is going to change with or without the influence of the United States. Slowly but surely people begin to realize that there is a world beyond the mosque or church. The more that rigid belief system seeks to impose a linear, monochromatic worldview the more quickly it will find itself, to quote Ronald Wilson Reagan, relegated to the dustbin of history. Unfortunately they can no longer build walls like the Chinese did so many years ago. Even without the sale of the IPhone in China, radio waves and pictures travel everywhere. Iranians young and old love their country and respect its leaders but they are becoming aware that it needs to change. It doesn't need to become Dirty Vegas but the current Islamosocialtheocraticfascistkleptocratic state has to end. Talk to Libya's Ghadaffi, he knows the deal or actually he figured out the deal when his son returned from the London School of Economics and explained the deal to him. Either the Iranian leaders get with the program or they'll end-up like the Shakers. It won't happen immediately and occasionally they'll be able to claim a temporary victory but a hard rains' a gonna fall and change is gonna come. It they don't get with the program all that will be left in 100 years will be four old dudes playing checkers in Hyde Park.