Will Best Buy best the analysts?


Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), the electronics mecca that competes with retailers such as Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Target (NYSE: TGT), Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD), and GameStop (NYSE: GME), will be issuing earnings for the first fiscal quarter on Tuesday, June 16. According to this source, Best Buy will see a decline in net income. Analysts believe that the retailer will do $0.34 per share, which represents a drop of about 20%.

But, according to that same source, Best Buy has beaten the analysts at their game in the last two quarters. If you ask me, I think the company has a good chance of beating the forecast yet again. With all the euphoria in the equities market as of late, and with all the talk about the recession possibly coming to an end late this year, I feel that consumers must have been in a better mood in the most recent quarter. And one would assume a big name like Best Buy would get its share of the traffic.

People are still careful about their discretionary spending, of course. They're not going to buy electronics just for the heck of it. As an example, Mark Fightmaster recently took a look at sales in the video-game industry and saw that they were a bit slow. Best Buy, like its competitors, has a department dedicated to entertainment software for all the major consoles.

Actually, I was in Best Buy last week and bought a video game. I can't say that the store was wall-to-wall with shoppers, but it was far from a ghost town. So, I'm not going to be surprised by a decline in same-store sales and top-line sales. Nevertheless, whenever I go into my local Best Buy, I see all the young kids, all the generations who are comfortable with the iPod and the Internet, browsing and buying DVDs and other gear. A younger demographic isn't necessarily as concerned with an ongoing recession as an older one is, so this is probably a saving grace for Best Buy.

Shares of Best Buy have seen a run-up, and I'll tell you, I think shares could be higher on the earnings report, assuming the company does indeed beat. Investors remain in the mood for buying stocks as far as I can tell, and are looking for any excuse to get in on the market action. I myself wouldn't take the chance with an earnings trade, though. I still want to remain disciplined and plan my buys very carefully. The market mood could change swiftly, and considering the price action on Monday, I think prudence is nothing less than obligatory.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 08:13 AM

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