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Adobe's Q2 profit comes in as expected -- should investors be bullish on stock?

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Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) said it earned 35 cents per share on an adjusted basis in the second quarter in a press release issued after the bell on Tuesday. Was it enough? Well, not exactly. According to the earnings preview, the market was betting on Adobe to make just that amount. Yep, it's that whole confusing Wall Street thing. Meet expectations, and you don't really pass the test.

Meeting expectations in this climate should be considered cool, though. And let's not forget that the software company did okay on the revenue side. Sales came in at roughly $705 million. The market was expecting about $10 million less.

Sales and adjusted earnings declined on both a year-over-year and sequential basis. Cash from operations also dipped during the quarter. We're in that weird moment: the statistics define a situation that is still seeing fundamental challenges, but the stock is in an uptrend.

Will the uptrend be broken? Let's think about this. The market sold off on Monday, and it sold off on Tuesday. Adobe was down over 2% on above-average volume at the close of trading on Tuesday before the Q2 report was released. Shares were down another 2.7% in yesterday's after-hours session at one point. From a price-action perspective, I'd be a little hesitant about buying Adobe. No, I'm not about to declare the bulls dead just yet, I'm simply pointing out that you may want to be cautiously patient in this case. How many articles have you read recently about a coming wave of profit-taking? See my point? It will be interesting to see how Adobe fares during the regular session on Wednesday.

Adobe's long-term prospects cannot be ignored. It's a great software company. Just ask all the hobbyist, as well as professional, videographers out there about Adobe's suite of products. They are powerful, and if you're a clever individual, you can make good use of them to produce slick products. Adobe really does add value to those wishing to make short films. Let's not forget the document applications that the company is famous for, too.

Those who don't mind adding on dips and holding for a long stretch of time can probably look at Adobe. My colleague Joseph Lazzaro believes Adobe to be a well-positioned business ahead of a recovery. He's probably correct. Again, though, just remember that if you buy now, you do run the risk of obligatory cost-basis-improvement. In other words, you might have to double down if the bulls feel it's time to change species and become bears. If you're willing to do that, then it's okay to take a look at Adobe.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 05:20 PM

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