Sometimes you just have to step back from the small-picture hubbub and make some assumptions about the new landscape if legislation passes.
If you look at the health care legislation you know that it is going to cut out some profitability for companies that have relied on the government for big profits, which means the companies that have the most Medicare exposure. So you go with the health maintenance company with the least Medicare exposure -- WellPoint (NYSE: WLP) (Cramer's Take). It simply can't get hit as badly as a Humana (NYSE: HUM) (Cramer's Take) or a UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) (Cramer's Take) because it doesn't have the exposure.
That's how I feel about JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) when it comes to banking. It's not a hedge fund seeking to fight regulation, it is not a thrift hoping to arbitrage legislation, it is not a credit card issuer trying to get a loophole going and it isn't a consumer protection racket or a consumer defrauder. It is, in this world, a good actor.
This "sweeping" federal regulation will have lots of ramifications through the industry, but from what I can see JPMorgan has the least to worry about and it will have the most to gain if others are driven out of business.
We are seeing patterns here that are pretty evident: If you need government help, you are going to pay dearly. If you don't need government help, you are going to do better -- not great -- but better than if you do need help.
This regime takes some getting used to because the previous regime's mantra was to give taxpayer gifts to public companies. This regime either wants to take back the gifts or make you pay for them yourself. So the more self-reliant, such as WellPoint and JPMorgan, the better they will do.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long JPMorgan.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-27-2009 @ 10:54AM
John Canever said...
Thank you, Jim Cramer. You cost me and many others a lot of money last year by your phony, misleading optimism about investments and you knew it.
6-19-2009 @ 11:57AM
jeff said...
Cramer you are either missing the big picture or a JP Morgan employee! JP Morgan/Chase do issue credit cards and they have only 20 day grace periods which the government should make 30 day mandatory and they charge huge late fees! Their latest scam is closing refinances so slow they get a extra 3 months of payments at the higher interest rate and they are charging $3000 OR MORE in closing cost$. Add that to the fact they are one of the BIG BANKS who actually run the FED and helped cause this huge economic crisis by not giving credit when they had plenty to give and you see they are the leaders of the EVIL BIG BANK empire!! Yes the FED and the BIG BANKS caused this whole mess just like they did DURING the CARTER administration to GET NEW REGULATIONS like the change in reserves from 50% to only 10% (by REGAN) making banks less stable!!! JP morgan/chase and their buddies caused this to buy up other banks like WAMU and BEARN-STERNS at pennies on the dollar and just let the average Joe lose in the process. GET RID OF THE FED and BIG BANK control of our economy. Wake up and smell the corruption Crammer!!
6-19-2009 @ 12:43PM
Tuddy said...
Jim Cramer says.....who cares. Jim Cramer is a windbag. John Stewart exposed him telling someone else how to short the market. The only thing we have to go on in this world is credibility. Cramer is sorely lacking in that.
6-19-2009 @ 12:50PM
J Roy said...
Oil companies pumping up the price for July 4th holiday. Boycott Buying Gasoline on July 4th get the word out! Lets have an Indepedence Tea party on July 4th at all gas stations.
6-19-2009 @ 1:09PM
Michael R. Sanders said...
All I know, is that the smaller regionals, like Marshall & Isley (MI) have been virtually destroyed, along with many small investors, like myself. I've lost over $400,000 and have $82,000 left... Not good, when you are 51 years old, disabled and have no one to help you (other than my paid housekeeper, twice a month). My dividend was cut to .01 / share, even as they just announced a huge payout to the "Preferred" shareholder, the U.S. Treasury. MI is being raped. It's a small bank, with many small investors! They did everything right! They sold Metavante, over a year ago to raise capital, stopped bonuses, cut dividends (except to the government "preferred"), they halted the construction of new bank locations AND they maintained their lending criteria (albeit, many new loan apps. are being denied, as they should be). I am ready to jump out my window, but I live in a 1-story house, so what's the point? Even the business environment has improved, with our local GM plant (Wentzville Assembly Center) being told that they are a survivor, since they are the only plant capable of producing full-size, commercial vans, which are in demand (the regime must need lots of plain vans, for some reason). They just raised $500,000,000 in capital from the sale of new stock, which was eaten-up by the market in one day! Dilution, yes, but strong demand for these shares. On Monday, I will be liquidated to cover a $108,000 margin call. I am toast. Who do I blame, aside from myself (51% guilty for lack of diversification and using leverage)? 49% of the blame is unknown. In other words, I just gave $200 K to someone, during the last 5 months! Who is behind this? I sure hope that this isn't part of that "change," we were promised!!! What a sick joke that would be. After my healthcare/disability are reformed, I won't even need money. Why? Because, if they handle healthcare like they've handled the banks, I'll be dead... HA! Then I can't pay taxes (silver-lining)!
If this is "change," then I enter a vote of NO CONFIDENCE.
6-19-2009 @ 3:57PM
Patricia Walker said...
Sixty Minutes recently did a piece stating JP Morgan could be called one of the biggest oil companies in the world because of their heavy participation in oil speculation. It was also more recently reported that JP Morgan is requesting that it be allowed to pay back some TARP funds to the governmant. We are all aware of how the price of gasoline has risen yet again in the last couple of months. I have read that there is no market reason for this rise in prices. Gee, could it be possible that all of the above is connected?
6-19-2009 @ 4:20PM
Bill said...
Oh, puhleeeeze. JP Morgan Chase isn't a consumer protection racket or a consumer defrauder? It is, in this world, a good actor? The Kings of Tricks and Traps, Bait and Switch, we'll do anything to anyone for money? On what planet does Mr. Cramer reside?
In December of 2004. a representative of Bank One offered me a deal I could not refuse. I was offered an unsecured loan of $19, 800.00 at a fixed interest rate of 2.99% for a transaction fee of $50.00 (read extra interest) and I was promised the monthly payment would remain at 2% of the unpaid principal balance for the life of the loan.
Things went as agreed. Then enter JP Morgan Chase who apparently gobbled up Bank One. In January of this year I was checking my checking account activity on line and noticed that JP Morgan Chase had sucked two and a half times the payment amount out of my account than I had expected. I called Chase and a rep told me, "Oh, we're helping you pay off your loan sooner." I told sweet cheeks I had not requested any help and they had placed an unexpected burden one me. She said, " We will lower your payment back to 2% if you will agree to allow us to raise your interest rate from 2.99% to 7.99%.' (so much for their benevolent desire to help my pay off my loan sooner).
The rep claimed I had been notified of their intent in November or December '08 at which time I had been in a hospital or rehab center undergoing and recovering from open heart surgery in order to get cardio clearance for continued treatment of two kinds of cancer I was battling. I imagine the "notice" was buried in one of their famous 7 page credit card agreements in print too small for the naked eye.
At that time, unknown to me, they had also imposed a monthly "finance charge" of $10.00 effectively raising my promotional interest rate of 2.99% to 4.67% depending on the number of days in the billing cycle. Apparently they got their hands slapped as they have since refunded these $10.00 charges and the interest charged on those illegal fees. I imagine a class action suit was looming.
Mr. Cramer, is this the "good actor" to whom you are referring? If they are doing as well as you say, it is because they are screwing their best customers. By best customers, I mean those who pay their agreed obligations in full, on time, without fail, not those from whom they can extort the most interest and fees. It is my understanding that the credit cards company's new definition of "deadbeats" are those folks who pay off their credit card balances each month without paying interest. Isn't that sad?
According to those who decree such things, my credit score falls in the top 2% of all American consumers. Your "good actor" takes such a consumer who is elderly with multiple health issues and works on his knee caps. You champion some nice folks.
If Mr. Obama sincerely want to institute "change", he might consider reinstating pre-1979 usury laws. Legalizing loan sharking hasn't worked out all that well.
6-19-2009 @ 5:41PM
Victoria Cooper said...
Go Cramer, I too am bullish on JPMorgan and my money is where my mouth is!!!!
6-20-2009 @ 1:38AM
jonnie said...
DUMP IT NOW CRAMER JUST GAVE JPM THE KISS OF DEATH !!!