Tempur Pedic (TPX) lifted by positive Sealy (ZZ) forecast

Posted Jun 19th 2009 12:40PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Forecasts, Industry, Options, Technical Analysis

Tempur-Pedic (NYSE: TPX - option chain) shares are rising today after competitor Sealy Corp. (NYSE: ZZ) reported a preliminary second-quarter profit margin of 40.1 to 41.1 percent on revenue of $294 million to $301 million, in line with analyst forecasts of $296 million. This should be a good sign for TPX as well. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TPX.

TPX opened this morning at $12.04. So far today the stock has hit a low of $12.01 and a high of $13.22. As of 11:35, TPX is trading at $12.65 up 0.86 (7.3%). The chart for TPX looks neutral and S&P gives TPX a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $7.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just three months as long as TPX is above $7.50 at September expiration. TPX would have to fall by more than 40% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

TPX has not been below $7.50 since March and has shown support around $9.80 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in TPX or ZZ.

Tags: forecast, investors observer, InvestorsObserver, options, Sealy, tempur-pedic, TPX, ZZ