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Winnebago doesn't win the expectations game in Q3

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Winnebago Industries (NYSE: WGO) traveled to Wall Street on Thursday to deliver its Q3 earnings numbers. The market thought that the results were worthy of a 10% increase in the stock price. Winnebago closed yesterday at $7.15 per share. The 52-week low on the stock is $3.14. Volume was active during the trading session. So, is Winnebago a buy?

Let's check out some of the stats. According to the press release (pdf file), net sales saw a very steep decline of more than 60%. Winnebago lost 29 cents per share in this year's third quarter versus a profit of 10 cents per share in last year's similar period. However, analysts expected a loss of 27 cents per share. Since Winnebago didn't beat the analyst community, you have to wonder why the market was so excited and in a frenzy to bid shares higher.

Looks like we have a mystery on our hands, huh? Well, maybe not. Winnebago has tightened up its inventory position. And let me tell you, the positive affect of the attack on inventories can be seen in the statement of cash flows. For the nine-month period, Winnebago generated 19% more cash from operations this time around compared to last year.

A leaner inventory portfolio shows that Winnebago has effectively managed itself during the downturn. According to Reuters, CEO Bob Olson believes demand should pick up for Winnebago's products. If such a belief ends up being true, then the lower inventory level should make the business more valuable.

Of course, shareholders will have to hope that management continues executing in a proper fashion. Also, the expected recovery will need to occur to justify the stock's rebound from its 52-week low. Keep in mind the big year-over-year quarterly revenue drop; it does make one pause and want to perform more due diligence.

Jamie Dlugosch wrote recently about Winnebago and characterized the business as a potential long-term buy. It's true: this is an investment story about demographic trends -- I agree.

Nevertheless, I'm not in a rush to buy Winnebago. I'd rather wait to see what the next quarter brings. Sure, Winnebago probably is a holding you might be able to sock away for a lengthy period and make some money, but I'd like to check out additional data later on to see exactly how the recovery thesis is coming along before committing capital to this stock. Besides, there is one big negative to Winnebago. The company had suspended its dividend payment back in the fall of last year. Suspending a dividend program is a sure way to make me skeptical on an investment idea.

Finally, I must mention that I was very bearish on Winnebago last year at this time. Admittedly, I've softened a bit on the company because of the new conditions and the improved price action in the stock. Again, though, as I just stated, I remain skeptical, and would be cautious about buying this name.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 01:04 AM

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