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The week in preview: End-of-quarter earnings expectations: Nike, Oracle, Walgreen ...

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This week brings a small flurry of end-of-the-calendar-quarter earnings reports. And for the most part, the expectations of the analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters aren't very high. Companies expected to report declining earnings in the most recently concluded quarter include America's Car-Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG), Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL), Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc. (NYSE: JTX), Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), and Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC).

But analysts are looking for Springfield, Mass.-based gun maker Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: SWHC) to report a profit of $0.12 per share for its fiscal fourth quarter, which is 33.3% higher than a year ago. Revenue is expected to be 17.7% higher to $97.8 million, which is a little lower than the just-released preliminary Q4 numbers. The full-year forecast is for $0.23 per share (+4.3%) on sales of $333.2 million (+12.6%). Earnings more than tripled expectations in the third quarter, but fell short in the two periods before that. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 18.3%, which is much better than the S&P 500 average, and the forward PE ratio estimate is 19.0. The consensus recommendation shifted from hold to buy SWHC in the past three months. Shares are up 7.7% in the past three months to $6.03. The price hit a 52-week high of $7.52 in early May.

Analysts expect Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: DRI), operator of the Red Lobster and Olive Garden chains, to report earnings of $0.86 per share for a fiscal fourth quarter, which is 9.3% higher than a year ago. Revenue is expected to 8.6% higher to $2.0 billion. For the full year, analysts expect to see $2.71 per share (-1.1%) on $7.2 billion (+9.1%). The Orlando-based, dividend-paying company's earnings met or topped estimates in recent quarters, by as much as 13 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.4% and the forward PE ratio estimate is 11.0, both of which are better than rival Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT). Analysts on average recommend buying DRI. At $34.70, shares are 3.0% higher than three months ago, despite sliding over the past couple of weeks.

Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) and McCormick & Co. (NYSE: MKC) are also expected to post modest earnings growth year over year.

Even where companies are expected to report marginally lower earnings, it could be turn out to be good news if they offer upside surprises and/or positive guidance. Take Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG). For the period that included the conclusion of an acquisition and saw record electronic prescriptions, Illinois-based drugstore chain is expected to report that its fiscal third-quarter earnings slipped two cents per share to $0.56. Revenue is expected to have fallen 7.7% to $16.2 billion. The forecast for the full-year results is currently for $2.05 per share (-5.5%) on $63.2 billion (+7.1%). Earnings have come within a penny or so of estimates in most recent quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.3% and the forward PE ratio estimate is 14.0, which is in the same ball park as those of rival CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS) but better than Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD). The consensus recommendation recently shifted from buying to holding WAG. At $31.43, shares of this dividend-paying stock are 27.4% higher year to date, but still 10.4% lower than a year ago. (See our earnings preview for more on Walgreen.)

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) announced restructuring efforts and a new innovation in running shoes in its fiscal fourth quarter, and analysts expect that earnings of the world's largest shoemaker to be two cents per share lower year over year, or $0.96. Revenue is expected to have fallen 6.9% to $4.7 billion. The forecast for the full-year results is $3.77 per share (+0.8%) on $19.2 billion (+3.2%). Nike beat earnings estimates in the past five quarters, by as much as 25.5%. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.4%, and the company's forward PE ratio estimate is 15.0. Nike reports having more cash on hand than long-term debt, and it pays a quarterly dividend. The consensus recommendation remains to buy NKE. Shares are 21.9% higher than three months ago to $56.70, but still 16.4% lower than a year ago.

Analysts expect enterprise software giant Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that are three cents per share lower than a year ago to $0.44. Revenue is estimated to have fallen 11.2% to $6.5 billion. For the full-year, analysts are looking for $1.42 per share (+8.5%) on $23.1 billion (+2.3%). Its earnings have met or topped estimates in the past five quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.1% and the forward PE ratio estimate is 14.0, which are about the same as rival SAP (NYSE: SAP) but higher than Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT). Oracle began paying dividends in the most recent quarter and said it would acquire Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA). The consensus recommendation remains to buy ORCL. At $20.66, shares are 16.5% higher year to date, but still 9.0% lower than a year ago.

Homebuilders KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) are expected to report that they narrowed their respective losses for the second quarter. Analysts have the higher expectations for KB Home, looking for a loss of $0.64 per share, compared to a loss of $3.30 in the year-ago quarter. But revenue for the quarter is forecast to have fallen 46.9% to $339.1 million. Despite narrower losses, analysts don't foresee KB Home returning to profitability, nor reporting revenue growth, in 2009. The company's losses have been deeper than expected in most recent quarters, but KB Home beat expectations in the first quarter. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10.5%, which is better than that of Lennar and other homebuilders, such as Centex Corp. (NYSE: CTX), Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM), DR Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI), Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL), and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV). The consensus recommendation, though, remains to hold KBH. While shares of this dividend-paying company are 19.2% higher than three months ago, closing Friday at $13.41, they recently slipped below the 100-day moving average.

Palm Inc. (NASDAQ PALM) on the other hand, is forecast to post a deeper loss for its fiscal fourth quarter.

Elsewhere on this week's economic calendar are the FOMC two-day meeting on interest rates, congressional committee hearings on administration proposals, the United Nations Global Summit on World Financial and Economic Crisis, and Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 03:43 PM

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