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Sandra Bullock succeeds for Disney, Jack Black fails Sony

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Looks like Disney's (NYSE: DIS) The Proposal, starring Sandra Bullock, was sober enough to beat Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Hangover.

According to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, the movie grossed $34 million at domestic theaters, making it the top film of the past three days. Proposal was expected to earn $26 million during its first weekend out in the marketplace.

Hangover was second with $26 million. The surprise comedy hit (it was a surprise to me, anyway) has now passed $150 million in terms of total tally.

The next two films on the list are in a tight race. Both the Pixar cartoon Up and Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Year One, starring Jack Black, have around $20 million to their credit (Up has the edge as estimates peg its haul at $21 million). We'll have to wait and see which of the films is given third place when final statistics are distributed, but I'll say this: Black certainly disappointed Sony with his performance. He should have done better than $20 million. If Hangover wasn't in the market, I'd have to assume the comedic fantasy may have achieved a higher level of monetary success.

Proposal is estimated to have a budget of somewhere around $40 million. This makes the project relatively inexpensive. I'm actually amazed it went beyond expectations (although expectations for movies are oftentimes quite conservative), as I didn't infer anything special about it. I'm sure there will be a lot of positive press on the performance of the film, especially if it displays a good set of legs and becomes a big hit.

As a shareholder of Disney, I'm not sure whether I should be impressed or not. It might not have been costly to produce, but I have to wonder how much money Bullock will take from Proposal. We don't know what her deal was, but if she kept her fee low to keep a check on the budget, then I'm sure she made it up on the back end. I'd love to know her ultimate take of the cash flow.

You have to give Disney some credit, though. Not only did Proposal perform, but Up's total domestic gross has almost reached $225 million. I think it's safe to say, after looking at this data, that Up will do better than Cars, which ended its run with a domestic take of $244 million. The animated feature has already bested Wall-E and Ratatouille.

I wouldn't buy Disney based solely on these box-office numbers. Even though Up should help the studio segment's prospects in the coming months (at least, I hope it does), I think you have to take into account other considerations (the business is a media conglomerate, after all). Time Warner continues to fascinate me as a possible trade, although I am still reticent to step up to the plate on that one. And Sony, as always, is one I am not interested in playing.

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 07:37 PM

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