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Call volume climbs on E*Trade Financial after a trio of upgrades

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E*Trade Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC) has garnered three upgrades in as many days this week. On Monday, Fox-Pitt upped the equity from Underperform to In Line, while FBR on Tuesday raised its opinion from Underperform to Outperform. Raymond James rounded out the trifecta on Wednesday, hiking its rating on ETFC from Underperform to Market Perform.

Judging by this rush of analyst love, Wall Street seems to think the worst is over for E*Trade. However, most of this week's commentary falls under the category of "damning with faint praise." For example, Fox-Pitt said they now believe ETFC is more likely to be acquired by another firm than to file bankruptcy, and Raymond James observed that the stock has "limited downside" -- hardly a bold statement for an equity that settled Wednesday at $1.23.

The week's wave of upgrades was connected with ETFC's capital-raising efforts. The online brokerage raised $550 million this week through a common stock offering, effectively bolstering its capital cushion.

In the options pits, this week's news has prompted a flood of call volume. In fact, call open interest for the July and August options series more than doubled overnight, spiking by 104%. ETFC's August 1 call was far and away the most popular strike, with volume of 49,974 contracts crossing the tape yesterday on open interest of just 438 contracts. Open interest at this in-the-money call arrived today at 49,826, confirming that most of the day's transactions were newly opened positions.

However, a closer look at the data reveals that nearly all of the volume at the August 1 strike changed hands at the bid price, indicating they were likely sold to open. Assuming that traders are, in fact, selling premium at this strike, they're making a bet that ETFC will be pinned beneath $1 through the next couple of months.

These options are already in the money by a narrow margin, which means these call sellers could potentially be assigned. However, assignment probably won't become a truly pressing concern until these contracts lose more of their time value; they still have roughly eight weeks until expiration. Of course, it's also possible that these call writers are hoping to be assigned, potentially because they're looking to unload their investment in ETFC.

In short, the recent flood of call volume on ETFC is hardly bullish in nature. Option traders seem wary, at best -- probably the most appropriate stance, considering the security has languished below $3 per share since October 2008.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 07:10 PM

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