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Rite Aid beats analysts, but not right for me yet

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Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), which competes with Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), saw a big increase in volume on Wednesday after it reported earnings for the first quarter. In fact, as Douglas McIntyre observed, shares of Rite Aid were up 5% at one point during yesterday's session. However, the shares ended up losing their green status by the close of trading. Rite Aid actually lost 3% when all was said and done. What does it all mean?

Well, Rite Aid did beat analyst forecasts by a wide margin. The call was for a loss of 13 cents per share. Rite Aid lost only 6 cents per share once adjustments are made. Revenues dipped a little over 1%, and same-store sales, after excluding the effect of the Brooks Eckerd acquisition, increased 1.5%. Interestingly, the mix of this increase is as follows: the pharmacy sales went up 3.1% on a comparable basis, and the non-pharmacy sales went down 1.4% on the same basis.

Rite Aid seems to be doing better. I've been very bearish on the business, as my article on the company's Q4 earnings illustrates. No, I'm not a bull yet; far from it. I think Rite Aid has a long way to go before I turn into that particular species. I'd like to see profits, for instance.

Another thing management has to focus on is the non-pharmacy sales. Selling prescription drugs is easy; selling a loaf of bread to go along with the prescription is not. It would be nice to see a plan to get those revenues going. Cutting costs to create efficiencies is great, but coming up with growth strategies is even better.

When I look at Rite Aid, I see a company that is still trying to prove itself. As such, it's speculative. And Rite Aid's stock price reflects such speculative status.

Trading the stock still isn't for me. I find it difficult to even think about placing an order for shares of Rite Aid when there are better alternatives available. I know there are many reading this who would argue that there is a trade here. In fact, I'm sure some of you would look at yesterday's price action and assign the loss at the end of the day for Rite Aid to the Fed. You're probably correct on that count. But I don't want to chase Rite Aid's penny-stock momentum. I'll need to see further data in the coming months to assess how the quality of this turnaround idea is evolving.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 23, 2009: 02:51 AM

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