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Shoe drops on Nike

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Nike (NYSE: NKE) has thus far navigated this downturn exquisitely. It has maintained sales overseas, in particular in Asia. Nike's legendary supply-chain mastery and inventory management skills have likewise served it very well. So it was a shock when the shoe giant announced Wednesday that future orders had dropped by 12%, according to Bloomberg. Bummed out investors bid down Nike share's by nearly 5% in after-hours trading.

Granted, Nike faced difficult comps. During the Beijing Olympic Games last summer Nike togs were selling like hotcakes around the globe. And a chunk of the reduction in order value came due to currency fluctuations. But it's hard to deny that this quarterly earnings announcement was a bleak reminder that the "green shoots" may be more of a Washington creation than a reality in the global economy.

Nike executives cited "a heightened sense of caution" among individual shoppers as being at the root of sluggish U.S. sales. Translation: kids don't have money to spend on $150 Air Jordans and adults are not buying expensive Nike shoes because they are broke and don't know when they'll have money again. That only stands to reason with consumers in continued retrenchment mode and other upscale retail brands (yes, Nike is upscale), such as Tiffany (NYSE: TIF) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), struggling mightily.

Whether you buy a share of Nike or not in the next few weeks, as the stock will likely continue to remain weakened, really depends on what you think of the global consumer. If you think those consumers are going to bounce back strongly, then Nike is a good solid play. If not, you might end up with your money locked up in a stock that won't move for quite a while. Nike has killer management and remains the best-run apparel company in the Universe. But even the winged goddess of victory struggles to vanquish the biggest asset bubble in history.

Alex Salkever is the Director of Research at Piqqem.com, a stock prediction community powered by the Wisdom of Crowds.

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Last updated: November 22, 2009: 10:14 AM

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