The first half of 2009 has whizzed by in what seems like a macroeconomic eye-blink. Wasn't President Obama inaugurated just a few weeks ago? It's a cliché but it's true: time flies. The nation has made strides to recover from its near-decade of policy errors, but much work remains. Accordingly, then, here are three economic wishes for the United States for the second half of the year:
Net job creation -- It's asking a lot, given the restructuring occurring in the U.S. economy, but if the economy can end the second half with no net jobs lost -- i.e. adds as many jobs per month as it loses -- that would be a big plus. It also would imply stronger GDP growth and increased demand -- good news for stockholders -- but the task ahead is enormous: most economists expect the economy to continue to shed jobs at least through Q4, perhaps longer.
An oil price decline -- This would provide a nice tailwind for the U.S. economy. Most energy market veterans say oil's supply/demand fundamentals require just a $45-55 per barrel price for crude. Nevertheless, oil stubbornly hangs near $70, despite high inventories and low demand in the U.S. and abroad. The reason? Institutional investors, who have bought oil as an alternative asset, and as an inflation hedge, in the event of a weakening dollar. High oil prices act as an extra tax on consumers and businesses. Economists say there's a decent chance that oil prices will moderate in the next six months, and the sooner they do, the better, from a GDP growth standpoint.
Passage of heath care reform and national energy policy legislation -- Each Obama administration initiative will benefit the economy by: 1) addressing major, high-cost areas in the U.S. economy, 2) more-effectively deploying both health and energy dollars, and 3) eliminating uncertainty in the private sector regarding the shape of public policy in these two critical areas.
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Financial Editor Joseph Lazzaro is writing a book on the U.S. presidency and the U.S. economy.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-26-2009 @ 8:35PM
thedude said...
If new jobs are on your wish list you can forget it.
Obama is following the Clinton model of advocating free trade and the absolute outsourcing of the manufacturing base to Asia
90% of my purchases before Clinton took office were for goods made in the USA by the time Clinton was into his 2nd term 90% of those purchases would have been of foreign origin. I still buy US made goods but I'm betting you don't and anyone who shops at a local mall doesn't either.
As far as real estate, most mortgages that went into foreclosure were issued in the late 90's, who was President then ? Oh Yeah Clinton !
When was the first WTC bombing ? Oh yeah the 90's during Clintons term. What did he do about it ? Nothing !
When did the 9/11 terrorists enter the country ? 1999 under which president ? Oh yeah Clinton.
When was the operations manual for FEMA written ? mid 90's during whose presidency ?
Bush's biggest failing was to not undo everything Clinton put in place
Obama has already succeeded in being the biggest spending politician EVER whilst dismantling US car companies and providing funding to Japanese car companies, costing US workers their jobs. The only jobs Obama will create (if any) will be in governement administration for his cronies or at WalMart slinging Chinese made lead lined crap
The only way oil prices will be kept under control will be to remove them from commodities speculation and end the trade of oil futures, Bush placed a temporary ban on oil speculation last summer which is why fuel costs plummeted. Obama just isn't smart enough to repeat those actions
Finally his health care program (which primarily targets 5-10 million illegal immigrants and 30 million citizens who can't afford insurance) has already cost this country $25 Billion and it hasn't even begun yet, this will turn out to be entirely subsidized health care paid for by the ever decreasing ranks of the middle class. If you pay any attention to the VA you can see just what kind of a track record the government has administering health care
It's a nice wish list but it is just that a WISH there are so many people drinking the Obama Kool Ade they are too blind from those Rose colored glasses they look through
In the future you should really do some research and place blame where it is due rather than simply referencing your buddies fallacious blog. Second it is quite apparent to anyone capable of critical thinking who reads or watches the news that OBAMA truly stands for One Big Awful Mistake America
6-27-2009 @ 12:45AM
ShaunneyCakes said...
@thedude
Who was the last president to actually have a surplus in two consecutive reports as well as reduce the amount of people depending on welfare to its lowest number in nearly 20 years... oh yea... Clinton.
You can always tell a Republican... they are the one's who's backs are so up against the wall from their own stupidity, that they will say ANYTHING to get back to where they once were.
This article has very little to do with Obama... there needs to be a Health Care and Energy Bill... PERIOD. The Republicans had their chance, and they DOUBLED the deficit... Obama has not done that yet, in fact, he has not even come close. When he does... come back and see me.
Republicans doubled the deficit and led america into the worst recession since the 30's and you are upset that Obama has to spend money to fix it.
6-27-2009 @ 8:44AM
jzsnr5 said...
ShaunneyCakes, the only reason Clinton was kept in check and didn't do what Obama is doing is that Newt Gingrich was speaker of the house and the republicans were in charge of the congress. He wanted to spend away and impose all sorts of new taxes, but alas, they would not allow it or pass anything so they had to compromise.
Further, when Bush lest office, we had a deficit of about 500 billion. We now have a deficit of about 2 trillion so spare me the "what a great job Obama is doing" garbage. His popularity is dropping, his programs are not popular, and he is totally ignoring the things the majority of Americans consider important like the economy and the deficit. Every day, he is on television explaining yet a new program that will cost money or a new creative way to add more tax burden to the American people. So far, he has not done one single thing to help our economy and in fact, his programs are hurting the economy in a time when everyone else is economizing.
And before you take a shot at me for being a republican, understand I am not. What I am is a fair minded independent who at least looks at things in an unbiased way and without the rose colored glasses most liberals seem to be sporting. I believe strongly in our Constitution and limited government primarily because the government has screwed up every single program they have ever tried to fix or have undertaken (and can give you quite a list of them).
6-27-2009 @ 8:26PM
Nick, The Apprentice Trader said...
I'm amazed how often people will find irrational arguments to justify their hatred for a political figure by engaging in dubious and dishonest argument against someone they disagree with economically and politically.
The argument by TheDude against President Clinton is so deceitful and malicious that I won't even dignify it with a rebuttal. Besides, I'm not writing a thesis or dissertation on Clinton's presidency. The topic under discussion has nothing to do Clinton's presidency so I will stick to the topic.
All nations that have witnessed severe economic decline have been those with unhealthy appetite for foreign wars and entanglements. I'd suggest you study economic history of nations before the United States was born. Look at nations in Africa, Asia, Europe and even South America. Study the height of their economic grandeur and the depth of their decline, you will see how entanglements in wars both domestic and foreign crippled their economies. Nothing devastates economies like wars but they are no cheap to prosecute and usually they don't end as planned. In most cases you either borrow or print tons of money to fight wars. Just study economic history and you will be a good investor and speculator. I cautioned against the madness into Iraq and concluded that the out come will be economic disaster for this nation. Unfortunately, I am no body. I was just a concerned citizen.
How much is the United States spending to maintain the illusion of an empire? Where does all the money come from? Taxes, borrowing, printing or a combination of all three?
Blame Clinton all you want but unless this country return to true Libertarian principle of small government in all forms not in name only, the road to recovery is fraught with disaster.
Oil will not return to $40-$45 range unless the perception of a weak dollar is addressed. In anticipation of a weak dollar, oil speculators decided to long the market. It will not reverse anytime soon. The trend is pointing to a bullish market in oil. You will see a pull back in between but we've entered a bull market in oil that will last awhile.
The recipe for the next half of the year will be for government to reform substantially all entitlements, reform health care, military procurement and leave the Middle East alone. Get out of foreign wars. None of this will happen because politics and politicians are very predictable. They lack courage to change things for fear of demagogues. So they will leave things as they are and hope for the worst.