Following up on my Nike (NYSE: NKE) post from last week, you just knew I would have to comment on Nike's earnings report, right? Bottom line, it was a rough report and the short-term outlook is bleak as far as future orders go -- but all is not lost for Nike.
Here are the reasons to be optimistic. First, this is Nike, ladies and gentlemen. This is the company that has the biggest of the big names in its stable of athletes: Michael Jordan, Lance Armstrong, Tiger Woods, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James, to name just a few. This ensures that Nike will continue to be in the discussion as long as these athletes are at the top of their game.
The second reason, the company is an innovator. Nike leads the way in the athletic footwear; this is the shoe company, the company that the likes of Supra, Puma, and Pony try to imitate. I was once told that it is better to be an innovator than an imitator, and Nike innovates. While other companies may lead the way in apparel, Nike is fashionable -- and a lot of people are more concerned about looking good in the gym than wearing clothes that perform.
Another reason, let's not forget that Nike is darn near a monopoly (notice I said darn near ... I'm not saying they are a monopoly). Yes, people are having a hard time spending $125 on a pair of shoes, but that is a product of the global economy more than it is a product of new thinking. Yes, as my colleague Alex Salkever said "adults are not buying expensive Nike shoes because they are broke and don't know when they'll have money again." I agree 100% with this, but let's not forget about that group out there that is more concerned with how they look than with how much something costs. I hate to sound flippant, but there are irresponsible spenders out there, and more often than not, Nike is one of their target brands. How many pairs of Air Force Ones do you see on the streets? How many people in the gym are sporting a pair of Air Max? How many hoopsters are wearing the latest Nike basketball shoes? Let's not forget the Air Yeezy, which was made for Kanye West -- this model sells for more than $200 and is wildly popular.
Finally, let's take a look at Nike's long-term technical prospects. The stock is currently perched atop its 10-month moving average, as the shares are trying to march higher. Yes, the earnings report is a bit of a setback, but the stock is exhibiting some resilience. In addition, the $50 level is still in play as potential support. As long as the stock is atop this region, there is a chance for a rebound. Finally, the economy is bound to turn around eventually, when it does, I expect Nike to lead the way in retail and apparel -- we shall see.
I would be remiss if I didn't wrap up this edition of JockStocks without a comment about the passing of two icons of my childhood -- although not as well as Sarah Gilbert did. While Michael and Farrah were very different people, they were the '80s -- and I am a child of the '80s. I feel like a major part of the pop culture I grew up with was taken from me far too early and far too tragically. We all will die, that is one constant, but these were bigger-than-life figures who no one ever expects to come to such a human end. RIP Michael and Farrah, you contributed a great deal to what we children of the '80s have become today, and I thank you for that.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-26-2009 @ 11:02AM
itguy08 said...
Interesting article.
However you forget that AF1, Air Max, and Shox are not all Nike sells. For every one of those, there's 2 pairs of $50-70 shoes sold at Kohls, JC Penney, Famous Footwear, etc.
And then you forget that Nike owns Converse which is also experiencing a renaissance. Or that they also compete at Wal-Mart with Starter and a couple other low end shoes.
So while the market for the high end stuff may be falling off there are other low-mid end opportunities for Nike.
I do agree some of the prices, esp AF1's ($90 for the same shoe that sold for $50 back in the day) are high. However, the Air Max, Shox, etc are technical shoes and those that buy them want to look good and have good cushioning and support.
I think Nike will be fine.
6-26-2009 @ 9:07PM
ally said...
So much for firing thousands of people all around the world shutting all those factories and the stocks still dip. Wonderful.What goes around comes around