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Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan slashes 2Q outlook

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Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is under fire today after the firm lowered its second-quarter earnings outlook. Late Thursday, POT said it now expects earnings per share of 70 cents, compared to its prior outlook of $1.10 to $1.50 per share.

The company chalked up its slashed guidance to "substantially lower than forecasted potash sales volumes due to deferral of purchases by customers around the world and lower realized prices for phosphate fertilizers."

POT's full second-quarter results will be reported on July 23. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for a profit of 81 cents per share, on average.

Following the news, Canaccord dropped its price target on POT from $150 to $135. The newly reduced target still represents a rather healthy premium of more than 44% to the equity's closing price on Thursday.

While Canaccord is the only brokerage firm to weigh in so far today, POT could be vulnerable to downgrades if other analysts are disappointed by its weak guidance. According to Zacks, eight analysts maintain a Buy or better rating, compared to just one Hold and zero Sells.

In morning trading, POT was down roughly 2%. The equity is now in danger of finishing the week below support at its 20-week moving average, which has guided the shares modestly higher since February.

Meanwhile, put volume is picking up in the options pits. POT's July 80 and 85 puts have each traded volume in excess of 2,000 contracts, and the stock's August 80 put has seen nearly 3,000 contracts change hands.

However, not all of this activity is bearish in nature. Two large blocks totaling 2,149 contracts traded earlier today at POT's August 80 put, and both transactions occurred at the bid price. With open interest at this strike currently totaling just 785 contracts, it appears that these out-of-the-money puts are being sold to open -- a neutral-to-bullish bet that POT will be able to hold steady above $80 per share through August expiration.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 12:09 AM

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