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Chasing Value: GE -- maybe not eating out of trash cans after all

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This week I closed out an option on General Electric (NYSE: GE) I had discussed four months ago regarding the absolute fear in the market place that I felt had driven investors off a cliff (see Chasing Value: Will we be eating out of trash cans?).

At the time I had noticed that GE naked puts, a "sell to open" put option, would pay me, on the spot, 52 cents a share if I would commit to buying the shares if they dropped below $2.50 by January 2011. This meant that my break-even position was $1.98 a share when GE was selling for five times that.

It seems unbelievable that there was this much fear in the market! It meant that somebody thought GE would fall by 80% more almost two years out -- a time that even the most bearish think the recession is likely to be over. Well, sentiment changed, fear has dissipated, and I bought the options back, closing the position for 13 cents. This means I gave back 13 cents of the 52, for a profit of 39 cents in four months, a 15.6% return or 46.8% IRR. There was little to gain by holding on to it for another 18 months.

It's still bewildering that there are those that still think that GE could fall below $2.50 a share by this time. As of the market close last Friday June 26, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOE) indicated open interest of 16002 contracts or 1,600,200 shares. I still think this is nuts, but the premium was running from 8 to 11 cents, so it's not worth tying up the money.

I usually do not consider naked puts that are not paying something over 10% premiums, and only in companies I want to own anyway. I still have an open position in GE January 2010 with a strike price of $10 that paid $1.10 per share, making my break-even point $8.90 a share. GE closed on Friday at $11.75 and the last price on puts was $0.10, leaving me 20 cents in the black for now.

I will be discussing some of my favorite recent options trades later this week.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of GE and have open options as well.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 08:17 PM

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