Despite what you here from almost all quarters about the market dropping ten percent or so, in what is deemed a bear market correction of our recent bear market rally, I will continue to buy into this market. Of course I will be selective, and as always be thinking long term. This has helped me substantially over the past ten months beating the market by a huge margin.Keeping this in mind I examined my watch list for candidates that have been long term winners, and consistently beat the overall market using the Standard & Poors 500 index for comparison. The volatility in the market is certain to produce more buying opportunities.
One of my stock picks for the year was Diageo (NYSE: DEO) the worlds largest manufacturer of alcoholic beverages owning 8 of the top 20 brands. As you can see from the 10-year chart below, DEO would have been a fantastic place to be. I believe this will continue, and rather than trying to time the market I would buy in slowly and build a long term position.
Another stock that I have recommended but do not own is General Mills (NYSE: GIS). This company has trounced the S&P over the last ten years. It has strong brands, solid management and a clean balance sheet.
The third stock I call to your attention is Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and the following chart will not surprise you at all. Starting with the collapse of the tech market eight years ago, oil stocks have consistently stayed ahead of the market. Few people will argue that the oil companies will not continue to outperform the market and many, including me, would say that the energy stocks are almost all oversold right now.
All three of these stocks pay solid dividends: DEO 3.86%, GIS 2.82%, and CVX 4.04%. Historically companies that pay a reliable dividend have been better performers over the long run than those that do not. Many publications, and all financial institutions will inform you that past performance is no evidence of future performance and should not be relied upon. While this has some truth in it, overall I would say HOGWASH!
Your most dependable friends over the past ten years are better than your least dependable friends. People with a history of committing crimes have a much higher probability than people that don't do so in predicting the likelihood of future criminal behavior. People who have good credit are more likely to pay you back than people who do not. Need I say more? I strongly believe that all things being equal these companies will outperform the market over the next ten years.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture and planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of DEO.










