The domestic box-office estimates for the July 4th holiday weekend are in. According to Boxofficemojo, at the time of this writing, the results are too close to call. Both Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and News Corp.'s (NASDAQ: NWS) Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs are credited with the same amount of money: $42.5 million. Boxofficemojo is giving Dinosaurs the edge for now and calling it the top movie, presumably because the per-theater average for the computer cartoon is slightly higher.
I previously discussed News Corp.'s strong opening with Dinosaurs, but unfortunately, I'm not so sure the movie lived up to it. When the second Ice Age was released back in 2006, it scored $68 million in its three-day debut weekend. Dinosaurs didn't do as well, but let's take into account the film's Wednesday opening, and tally up the gross for the five-day period, since some of the excitement that might have been reserved for the weekend could have been spread over the mid-week showings. Even by that standard, as of the current estimate, Dinosaurs has taken in a little less than the second Ice Age.
Perhaps Dinosaurs will show strength in the coming weeks, but I think the comparison with the second Ice Age might be telling. Some might argue that this is simply a case of the Transformers sequel being so strong in the marketplace, not an indication of weakness on the cartoon's part. No matter. The numbers are disappointing for News Corp. The five-day opening for Dinosaurs did come close to the $68 million three-day debut for Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Pixar feature Up, however. I'm not sure that's such a great comparison, but it shows at least the appearance of keeping up with the competition.
Now, maybe the bigger story of the weekend is with General Electric (NYSE: GE) and its Universal release, Public Enemies. The picture, starring Johnny Depp, came in third with $26 million over the three-day holiday period. Like Dinosaurs, it opened last Wednesday. So far, its total gross is estimated to be a little over $40 million. The budget on the project is reportedly somewhere around $100 million.
Should shareholders of GE (I'm one) be happy about this? I don't think so. You can't call a five-day $40 million take in the summertime impressive these days. And, as my colleague Mark Fightmaster pointed out recently, GE's NBC Universal is having a rough time.
Oh well. Maybe GE will do better with the upcoming Bruno comedy from Sacha Baron Cohen. Question is, will audiences embrace what I'm assuming is essentially Borat 2, or has such shtick run its course? My gut tells me Bruno should be a big hit. But, when discussing the movie business, the only thing certain is uncertainty. Let's hope GE can get its Hollywood division back on track.
Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-06-2009 @ 10:42AM
Dan Barnett said...
Steve,
A little unfair comparing Ice 2 & Ice 3. Ice 2 did not have the stiff competition of Transformers appealing to essentially the same audience. Despite having a title only a Creationist could love, Ice 3 is doing fine, and frankly better than I expected given the Transformers.
As for Public Enemy, the older, male audience is exactly what I'd expect for a gangster film. Not bad for the 4th of July weekend.
7-08-2009 @ 1:16AM
Ben said...
Considering that the summer is not a prime time to release a drama like Public Enemies, the 5 day take is actually decent. Johnny Depp has actually never been a huge draw beyond the Pirates of the Caribbean films, and Michael Mann films have never been huge hits, with his highest grossing film being Collateral with 101 million. It's also Rated R. Taking this into count, I suspect Public Enemies will make about 90 million in the US and an additional 110 million worldwide for a take of 200 million total. That means DVD sales should be profitable and Universal will ultimately be pleased with that. When you think about it, not many dramas period make that much. This film is not a summer blockbuster, it's a film being released in the Summer, so I think that really needs to be taken into consideration.
Also, historically, the 4th of July lowers grosses for films, so all films took a major hit on that day, and a movie like Public Enemies is especially hurt due to being such an adult oriented film (they are all barbecuing). The 5 day openers won't determine both Ice Age 3 and Public Enemies, it'll be the legs of both films. Fox might be disappointed, but considering their international take of 148 million, they made 225 million already, so it's hard to be too disappointed.