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China, Russia, India, Brazil in no condition to create 'supercurrency'

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The developing world's call for a new global reserve currency to replace the U.S. dollar is a lot of "sound and fury signifying not a whole lot," says economist David H. Wang.

Moreover, the effort is being led by none other than China, "a curious move, to say the least," said Wang, a China expert who grew up in Shanghai before moving permanently to the United States for graduate school.




For now, BRICbats are just that: talk

The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) nation's effort won't amount to much because none of the central banks of the nations have demonstrated independence from political pressure -- a value that ranks second only to the rule of law and transparency as the foundation for a fair, honest, and ethical financial system, Wang said.

"If you do not have an independent central bank, it makes it very hard, if not impossible for a central bank to protect the value of money over time. And if inflation is not contained, it is impossible to attain global reserve currency status," Wang said.

Further, China's recent comments to talk-down the dollar, "are deeply problematic, and ultimately self-defeating," he added.

"Beijing's stance was another example of 'hard Economics 101 lessons learned,' " Wang said. "Frankly, it was a ridiculous stance, which they've since realized and are now slowly backing away from. I mean, why would you talk-down the dollar when you hold more than $1.2 trillion in dollar-denominated assets and reserves? You're decreasing the value of your own assets, Beijing soon realized this, so you'll see very few specific criticisms of the dollar in the future."

Monetary Analysis: A better tactic, Wang said: Take measures to help the U.S. reduce its trade deficit, such as BRIC nations increasing their consumption of U.S. goods and services, which will eliminate a structural imbalance in the global economy, and strengthen everyone. Nevertheless, the BRIC global reserve currency ruminations will probably speed U.S. Congressional efforts to cut the budget deficit via spending cuts and tax increases, he added, strengthening the dollar and the global financial system, as BRIC nations continue with their own hard work: toward establishing independent central banks.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 09:54 AM

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