Have the G-8 nations lost their economic power? This is exactly what James G. Neuger feels may be happening. How can this be, you ask. Aren't the G-8 nations are the wealthiest nations on earth? Yes, that is true, but it is also true that the G-8 countries also hold the the most debt.
Bank bailouts and stimulus programs will explode the G-8 nations' debt to 114% of GDP in 2014. This debt load would be triple that of emerging countries. Even some G-8 members say that the group has lost its grip in this global recession, which left them wounded and unable to carry out the grandiose programs they previously envisioned like the reduction of greenhouse gasses.
Emerging countries have been invited to participate in the G-8 summit beginning today in Italy, but they are given lesser status. Enter the BRIC nations, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, which have sovereign reserves and are in the cat bird seat when it comes to economic recovery. They have less debt because they did not go wild with speculation as did the US, Britain and the EU. While the excess speculation and leverage brought down the developed countries, BRIC nations survived with less debt, less stimulus and plenty of reserves to draw upon when needed.
What does all of this mean? For one thing, the debt of the U.S., Britain and the EU will not be paid off as quickly as it was after WWII. An analogy would be your credit card debt. Let's say you owe $5000. It was easy to rack up that amount, but if your pay is $100 per month, just try and figure out how many months it will take to pay it off. Keep in mind that interest is added each day your balance remains open.
It's the same for the G-8 countries. They have racked up unbelievable amounts of debt and it will take years to pay it off.The result is that the stature and credibility of the G-8 nations is questionable to say the least.
Based on this analysis, would you invest in emerging countries?
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-08-2009 @ 12:38PM
clikdawg said...
Better question: Will they invest in us?