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Ruby Tuesday rallied yesterday after impressive earnings beat

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Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT) reported Q4 results on Tuesday (hey, what day did you expect the company to do it on?) after the bell. By the looks of the price action going into the report, as well as the price action after the report, you would have thought that the results were incredible. They were, in terms of an earnings beat, but other aspects of the report gave me pause.

Ruby Tuesday made 28 cents per diluted share during the fourth quarter. According to Reuters, analysts were only looking for 20 cents of per-share profit. Okay, so we know why Wall Street was so excited. Beating by 8 cents is impressive.

But am I wrong to question a couple things about the story? Total revenues declined 7%. Same-store sales went down by over 3% at locations owned by Ruby Tuesday. Comps at domestic franchise restaurants declined almost 7%. And that 28 cents of per-share profit only bested the previous year's performance by a single penny.

I look at these stats and have to wonder if buying Ruby Tuesday right now after such a rally in the stock might be unwise. I mean, the shares gained almost 12.5% by the end of the regular session yesterday, and they powered higher another 8% in after-hours trading.

At least wait until the shares go into a mode of consolidation before engaging in a serious round of due diligence. Ruby Tuesday believes it might earn between 50 cents and 65 cents per share in fiscal 2010. Plus, same-store sales are expected to be positive.

I guess when you consider how aggressive the company wants to be in terms of increasing traffic (at least, it seems that way to me from reading the release) and reducing debt, it's possible to understand all the buying interest.

Nevertheless, I'd probably want to keep an eye on how the company is progressing and perhaps wait for the stock to clear the current 52-week high of $8.84. This could signal a nice momentum trade. Ruby Tuesday is not one I'd like to invest in for the long term. If I want to place a restaurant in my core portfolio, my thoughts would first center on fast food. McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) and Burger King (NYSE: BKC) would be my primary ideas in this area.

Again, though, traders should keep this one on a watch list.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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DJIA-0.4510,226.49
NASDAQ-6.252,147.81
S&P 500-1.311,091.77

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 02:25 PM

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