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The week in preview: Another tough quarter for the big banks

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The earnings crunch ramps up this week, and again expectations are generally low. Among the so-called bellwethers that are expected to report lower earnings year over year are CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX), Gannett Inc. (NYSE: GCI), General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), Harley Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Marriott International Inc. (NYSE: MAR), Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT), Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK), and Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM). Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters do expect the profits of CSX, Gannett, Mattel, and Nokia to be up from the previous quarter, however.

A number of financial companies, big and small, are scheduled to report second-quarter earnings this week, providing a good look at what's going on in the sector. Perhaps the best news will be coming from Citigroup and Marshall & Ilsley. While they are expected to post further losses, at least they are headed in the right direction by narrowing those losses year over year.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is expected to report a net loss of 31 cents per share on revenue of $22.4 billion. That compares to a loss of 54 cents per share on $18.7 billion in the year-ago period. Citigroup is expected to further narrow its loss in the third quarter, and it has posted smaller-than-expected losses in three of the past four quarters. The short-term EPS growth forecast is 89.0%. The share price has been hovering around $3 over the past three months, which is well below the 52-week high of $23.50

Analysts are looking for Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (NYSE: MI) to report a net loss of 69 cents per share on revenue of $586.7 million. The year-ago loss was $1.52 per share on $641.6 million. Marshall & Ilsley also is expected to further narrow its loss in the third quarter, but its losses have been deeper than expected in the previous two quarters. The short-term EPS growth forecast is 43.7%. The share price has fallen more than 55% since mid May, but is still higher than the 52-week low of $2.98

The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is expected to report a profit, but that it fell 24.0% from a year ago to $3.48 per share. Revenue is expected to total $10.7 billion. Except for a deeper-than-expected loss in Q4 2008, Goldman Sachs has offered not only profits but upside surprises in recent quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 16.0% and the First Call consensus recommendation is now to buy GS. The share price has climbed about 14% in the past three months, but it is also about 12% lower than a year ago.

Another of this week's expected earnings decliners is Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC). Analysts anticipate that its second-quarter profit will be 65.3% lower than a year ago to 25 cents per share, and that it will drop to 5 cents in the third quarter. Revenue for the second quarter is expected to be $32.5 billion (+57.7%). Bank of America creamed earnings estimates in the first quarter -- by 39 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 7.7% and the consensus recommendation has recently shifted to buying BAC. The share price has surged more than 66% in the past three months, but it is still about 45% lower than a year ago.

Quarterly earnings for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) are expected to have plunged 92.6% from a year ago to 4 cents per share. Revenue, though, is expected to be up 40.6% to $25.9 billion. Looking ahead to the third quarter, the forecast is for 44 cents per share on $25.0 billion. Earnings have topped expectations in recent quarters, and the long-term EPS growth forecast is 15.7%. The forward PE ratio estimate is 21.0, and analysts on average recommend buying JPM. Shares have fallen in the $32-$38 range since the beginning of May.

Other financials expected to report smaller quarterly earnings this week include BB&T Corp. (NYSE: BBT), People's United Financial Inc. (NASDAQ: PBCT), and Prosperity Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: PRSP). Forecast to have swung to losses in the quarter are MB Financial Inc. (NASDAQ: MBFI) and Webster Financial Corp. (NYSE: WBS), while First Horizon National Corp. (NYSE: FHN) is expected to have deepened its loss in the second quarter.

Are there any companies reporting this week that analysts expect good things from? Well, not many, and again expectations are low -- year over year earnings growth of the following is predicted to be less than 10%.

Drug and medical equipment maker Baxter International Inc. (NYSE: BAX) is expected to report earnings of 94 cents per share for its second quarter, up from 85 cents per share in the year-ago period. Revenue is also expected to come to $3.1 billion, which is a little lower than a year ago. Projections for the current quarter are about the same as for the second quarter. Earnings have topped estimates in recent quarters, by as much as 6 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 11.8% and the forward PE ratio estimate is 13.0. Analysts on average recommend buying BAX. Shares fell to a 52-week low in early June, but are about 11% higher since then, rising above the 100-day moving average.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which recently announced it would offer a rival operating system to Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows, is expected to report that second-quarter earnings rose to $5.06 per share. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be $4.1 billion, which is 4.0% higher than a year ago. Google has offered upside surprises in four of the past five quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is a healthy 18.6%. The forward PE ratio estimate is 19.0, and the consensus recommendation remains to buy GOOG. Shares have been rising since early March, but recently slipped below the 50-day moving average for the first time since then.

Biotech giant Biogen Idec Inc. (NYSE: BIIB) is expected to report that per-share earnings grew 5 cents from a year ago to $0.96. Revenue for the second quarter is forecast to be $1.1 billion. Looking ahead to the third quarter, analysts expect some sequential growth in both profit and sales. In the past five quarters, Biogen has met or beat earnings expectations. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 9.0% and the forward PE ratio estimate is 11.0. The share price has tumbled around 16% since early June and are more than 25% lower than a year ago.

Abbot Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) is expected report some small earnings growth in the second quarter as well.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 09:47 AM

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