Economists are a strange bunch. Their predictions range from the wildly optimistic to the bleakest pessimism. They use numbers to suit their philosophical bent, numbers that will justify their positions. Some believe that the numbers are hocus pocus. However, we must depend upon the numbers that the government provides .
Here are economists' predictions for the second half of 2009 and 2010 according to a Bloomberg survey:
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Growth will average 1.5% in the second half and 2.1% next year.
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Economists see no need for a second stimulus package.
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The economy probably shrank 1.8% in the last quarter.
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Our trade gap fell by 9.8% to $26 billion. This is partly due to a decline in world trade.
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With General Motors coming back on line, auto and auto supply sales should rise. The '"cash for clunkers" program will also add to auto sales.
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The US federal budget deficit will be about 12.1% of GDP this fiscal year.
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The Federal Reserve should leave interest rates near zero through the third quarter of next year.
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Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy, should rise by 1% this quarter and 1.8% in the first quarter of 2010.
Those who are familiar with the Rorschach Test know that in this test we see what we want to see. The same is true of the economy. There are definite signs that the economy is expanding and that the recession is ending.
Do you choose to see an end of the recession?
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-13-2009 @ 3:00PM
Iridium said...
I don't get your question. You say there are definite signs the recession is ending and then ask if we choose to see and end to the recession.
As if the recession has ended but only those who choose to see the end can see it.
Every single positive sign has been manipulated from the get go. Every single net positive has been created using funny accounting methods using federal stimulus cash or a "Well the result is less bad then we thought it was going to be". A company loses a few billion dollars and fires a few thousand workers and is rewarded with a billion dollar upgrade in market value because the loss is less bad than some moron analyst that has more in common with a carnival palm reader than anything resembling a valid thought says so.
We went through a 40% positive rally based on nothing but conjecture and 4 months later the economy has actually slid further down the slope. If there was a real recovery shouldn't it have already started?
Upticks in sales can only be attributed to deep discounts rather than increased real economic activity. Unemployment is still skyrocketing. The time spent under the unemployment program has never been greater and the percentage of underemployed people has never been greater.
Boy that looks like a recovery to me. Every person working in the business of the stock market is a complete idiot. I don't know if it is just blind ignorance or that they truly do not have the mental capability for common sense and rational thought. They are so blinded by the value of the manipulated market to their well being that they can not see that the manipulated market is destroying the very core of the true economy needed to keep the market going.
7-13-2009 @ 3:10PM
Iridium said...
I don't get your question. You say there are definite signs the recession is ending and then ask if we choose to see and end to the recession.
As if the recession has ended but only those who choose to see the end can see it.
Every single positive sign has been manipulated from the get go. Every single net positive has been created using funny accounting methods using federal stimulus cash or a "Well the result is less bad then we thought it was going to be". A company loses a few billion dollars and fires a few thousand workers and is rewarded with a billion dollar upgrade in market value because the loss is less bad than some moron analyst that has more in common with a carnival palm reader than anything resembling a valid thought says so.
We went through a 40% positive rally based on nothing but conjecture and 4 months later the economy has actually slid further down the slope. If there was a real recovery shouldn't it have already started?
Upticks in sales can only be attributed to deep discounts rather than increased real economic activity. Unemployment is still skyrocketing. The time spent under the unemployment program has never been greater and the percentage of underemployed people has never been greater.
Boy that looks like a recovery to me. Every person working in the business of the stock market is a complete idiot. I don't know if it is just blind ignorance or that they truly do not have the mental capability for common sense and rational thought. They are so blinded by the value of the manipulated market to their well being that they can not see that the manipulated market is destroying the very core of the true economy needed to keep the market going.
7-14-2009 @ 4:36PM
Darby Blake said...
I agree with the comments from Iridium above, the "experts" give out a stream of comflicting opinions and are, in general, herd animals all aping the message de jour. People need to think for themselves and use common sense when analyzing markets of all kinds. A child could have told you that real estate was over priced, unaffordable and bound to fall a couple years ago yet nearly every "expert" in the world did not have the nerve to voice that obvious observation. The same thing happened with the dot.com bubble back in 2000. The lesson? Take all expert commentary with a grain of salt or use it as a contrary indicator. Think for yourself people, your deductions are as valid, in fact are likely more valid, than anyone in the press. While I've got the soap box I'd like to plug my buddies property mangement firm in San Clemente, CA. I'm underwater (yes I listened to the experts as well, yes I'm an idiot) on my house but hate to walk away from it. I've left town for a better paying job and let the folks at Bertha Henry Realtors www.berthahenry.com manage my place. So far so good, no hassels at all, checks are on time, I recommend them if you need to rent out your place in south OC, CA.
Thanks DArby