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Oil remains under $60

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Falling oil pricesOil prices moved above $60 a barrel earlier in the day, but where unable to maintain their gains and have since dropped below the psychological $60 barrier once again.

Earlier this year oil had been making steady gains as investors bet on an economic recovery occurring in the second half of this year, but we are now in the second half of the year and a recovery is nowhere in sight. As a result, traders have started to focus more on the underlying fundamentals for oil, and this has led to a pretty steep sell off over the past couple of weeks.

Today's selling marks the seventh day out of the last eight trading sessions that oil has moved lower. Oil had traded up as high as $60.67 earlier in the session, but has since dropped $0.04 to $59.85 a barrel. It had traded as low as $58.35 before buyers came back in to boost prices back up close to break even on the day.

Now that the speculative trading has been removed from the market, attention is being focused on supplies, and for now there appears to be ample supplies for the market. A recent study showed that oil stockpiles in westernized countries were enough to cover roughly 62 days of demand. This is bearish for oil since it represents a week more than supplies were running at this time last year.

One thing that could bring buyers back into oil are two reports that are due out this week regarding inflation. Since oil is often used as a hedge against inflation, any signs that inflation is on the rise will spark buying interest in oil. On Tuesday we will get a fresh reading of the producer price index, and that will be followed up on Wednesday with the latest consumer price index readings. If these show that inflation is on the rise, do not be surprised to see a nice jump in oil prices. Should they however show that inflation is in check, or even dropping then the recent selling will continue.

To get a better understanding on just how severe the recent selling has been, let's close by taking a look at a current oil chart:



What are your thoughts on oil prices? Should we expect to see things level off in the days to come, or is oil still overpriced and in need of more correction?

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Last updated: November 09, 2009: 01:24 PM

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