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Be careful about trading Gannett after its Q2 report

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Gannett (NYSE: GCI), publisher of USA Today and other newspapers, as well as owner of many informational websites such as CareerBuilder.com, made some news of its own yesterday on Wall Street. After reporting second-quarter results, the stock had a great day. How great was Gannett's day? Shares closed higher by nearly 29%. Let me repeat that: 29%! And volume . . . it was way, way above the norm.

What in the world triggered this response by investors and/or traders? Gannett beat expectations. On an adjusted basis, the company made 46 cents per share. Earnings.com indicates that this performance is 10 cents better than analyst expected.

Granted, Gannett beat by a wide margin. Unfortunately, the business earned $1.04 per share in last year's similar quarter. And as for net revenues, they declined almost 18%.

I like to look at the statement of cash flows. Not much going on there. Cash from operations declined over 40%. And when you look at how the company's dividend is doing, you don't receive much comfort. Gannett paid out 90% less in terms of a payout this time around.

Well, I was definitely bearish on Gannett back in October. How do I feel about the company now? I'm still bearish on it. I mean, who could be bullish on the newspaper industry? Its future could be quite bleak. As for the stock, I absolutely would not buy it at the level it closed at on Wednesday, which was $4.50 per share. I have to assume a lot of the buying was fueled by short sellers covering their positions in a panic.

However, on a pullback, and after a careful study of the price action following this report, Gannett might make for an interesting trade for those who are willing to take on a lot of risk. Keep in mind, however, that such a trade would probably not be appropriate for most. It certainly wouldn't be for me. I just throw this out there because I concede that Gannett may see some momentum going forward. I really wouldn't want to gamble with such a fundamentally unsound situation. I know some out there will, though. If you do decide to roll the dice with Gannett (and I'm not advising that you do), be very, very careful.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 04:24 PM

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