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The week in preview: Earnings crunch expected to reveal lots of lower profits

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The earnings crunch begins in earnest this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting a parade of companies reporting profit declines in the just completed quarter. That includes more financials, such as American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK), M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB), Northern Trust Corp. (NASDAQ: NTRS), State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT), US Bancorp (NYSE: USB), and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC). On the other hand, Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF), E*Trade Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC), Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE: RF), and Zions Bancorp. (NASDAQ: ZION) are expected to post losses.

This week's anticipated earnings decliners also include tech companies such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Lexmark International Inc. (NYSE: LXK), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM), Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN), and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO). Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) is expected to post a loss.

The lower earnings parade includes travel and transportation: Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (NYSE: BNI), Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV), Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT), and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP). Analysts expect United Airlines parent, UAL Corp. (NASDAQ: UAUA), and US Airways Group Inc. (NYSE: LCC) to post losses, but JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU) is expected to have swung to a tiny profit (also see discussion of AirTran below).

Pharmaceuticals Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK), Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), and Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) are expected to be in the earnings decline parade too, though Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY), and Schering-Plough Corp. (NYSE: SGP) are forecast to be holding their own, with results in the same neighborhood as a year ago (also see discussion of Gilead Sciences below).

The parade also includes energy-related companies Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (NYSE: DO), Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL), Occidental Petroleum Co. (NYSE: OXY), Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU), and Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB), while Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) and Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE) are expected to report swinging to losses.

It includes consumer products makers Black & Decker Corp. (NYSE: BDK), Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO), Fortune Brands Inc. (NYSE: FO), Hasbro Inc. (NYSE: HAS), Kimberly-Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB), PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP), Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM), Tupperware Brands Corp. (NYSE: TUP), and Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR).

And it also includes Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CME), DuPont (NYSE: DD), eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY), Lockheed-Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT), 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM), United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS), United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX), and many others. Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), Great Atlantic and Pacific Tea Co. (NYSE: GAP), McClatchy Co. (NYSE: MNI), and New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT) are expected to post losses.

Of course with so many companies reporting results this week, it can't be all bad news. While analysts are looking for Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA), McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD), Safeway Stores Inc. (NYSE: SWY), and Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) to report results about the same as a year ago, they are expecting double-digit year-over-year earnings growth from Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG), Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY), and Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX). Below is a closer look at a few others for which analysts have high expectations.

Analysts expect Tennessee-based retailer Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO), which recently released preliminary results, to report earnings of $1.49 per share for the second quarter, which is 22.8% higher than a year ago. Revenue is expected to be 5.2% higher to $945.0 million. Analysts also expect to see earnings growth in the seasonally weaker third quarter. Tractor Supply's earnings topped estimates in the past three quarters, offering a surprise profit in the first quarter. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 15.2%, which is better than competitor Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD). Tractor Supply's forward PE ratio estimate is 16.0, and the First Call consensus recommendation is to buy TSCO; Goldman Sachs just initiated coverage of TSCO with a buy rating. The share price surged 20.0% in the past month to reach a 52-week high of $47.98 on Friday.

Drug maker Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD), whose products include AIDS drug Truvada, completed an acquisition in the second quarter. Analysts expect it to report a profit of $0.61 per share for the quarter, which is 16.4% higher than a year ago. Revenue is expected to be 24.9% higher to $1.6 billion. For the full-year, analysts are thus far looking for earnings of $2.50 per share (+17.6%) on sales of $6.5 billion (+21.9%). Gilead has topped earnings expectations in most recent quarters, by as much as 10%. In the first quarter, it reported having more cash on hand than long-term debt. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 16.9%, which is better than the health care sector average, as well as that of competitor Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) (which also reports this week). Gilead's forward PE ratio estimate is 18.0. The consensus recommendation is to buy GILD; Jim Cramer liked Gilead in a recent Lightning Round. Shares are 6.5% lower since the beginning of the year to $47.83, but jumped above the 100-day moving average at the end of last week.

Quest Diagnostics Inc. (NYSE: DGX), the world's largest clinical lab, reached a settlement and also purchased outstanding notes in the second quarter. This New Jersey-based company is expected to post earnings of $0.95 per share, which is 12.6% higher than a year ago. Revenue is expected to be 2.6% higher to $1.9 billion. Analysts expect to see similar results in the third quarter. This dividend-paying company's earnings have beat estimates in recent quarters, by as much as 9%. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.6%, which is better than the health care sector average, and the forward PE ratio estimate is 14.0. Analysts on average recommend buying DGX; InvestorPlace.com recommended buying DGX before the earnings release. Shares have risen 11.2% in the past three months, nearing the 52-week high of $59.95.

Analysts expect defense contractor Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), which boosted its full-year guidance after strong first-quarter results, to post a second-quarter profit of $1.13 per share, which is 11.5% higher than a year ago. Revenue is expected to be 5.3% higher to $6.2 billion. For the full year, analysts now expect to see $4.73 per share (+16.5%) on $24.8 billion (+6.9%). This dividend-paying company has topped earnings estimates in most recent quarters, by as much as a dime per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 11.3% and the forward PE ratio estimate is 9.4. The consensus recommendation remains to buy RTN; Bank of America upgraded RTN for its upside potential. At $44.94, shares are 5.7% higher than three months ago, but still down 12.0% year to date.

Standing out from other air carriers, Airtran Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AAI), which operates low-fare airline AirTran Airways, is expected to report swinging from year-ago loss to a second-quarter profit of $0.33 per share on revenue of $599.9 million. The Orlando-based carrier soared past earnings estimates in the first quarter, and the long-term EPS growth forecast is 30.0%, much better than those of rivals Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) and JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU). The forward PE ratio estimate is 8.5, but analysts on average recommend buying AAI. Shares hit a 52-week high of $8.68 in early May and closed Friday at $6.18.

And if lower earnings haven't offered enough to worry about, also look for the following data releases this week: The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index for June, existing home sales for June, initial jobless claims for last week, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July. Also, on Tuesday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies to the House Financial Services Committee on semi-annual monetary policy, and the House Financial Services Committee also examines "too big to fail" institutions.

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 07:54 PM

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