Let's say the principal worry when we left on Friday was that a million companies, many of them smaller retailers, would lose their credit over the weekend. Whatever was going to happen with CIT (NYSE: CIT) (Cramer's Take), regardless of whether you hated or liked Jeff Peek or believed they had totally blown their mandate -- I think they had -- could only be negative for the market.
Your only hope on Friday was a government rescue and all of the attendant scrutiny and derision that would accompany such a bailout.
Today we come in and we discover that not only is CIT whole, but the government didn't need to help. CIT is like a giant jobs program that the government doesn't have to pay for, and I don't care if the banks run out of money quickly because of it, at least there won't be a mad scramble and backup lines for the more creditworthy -- of course we were led to believe by CIT's giant PR machine that every company that it supports wouldn't get credit otherwise -- and the others, alas, should go.
To me the whole CIT story was suspect. As someone who is familiar with the Dunkin Donuts operation, for example, that's a group worth lending to, the most solvent of solvent.
Eddie Bauer, on the other hand, should have been let go years ago, a victim of massive and stupid leverage that seems to change hands every few months. Golden Gate Capital "won" Eddie Bauer just the other day, so I am not sweating the EB-CIT program.
No, what's more important is that shorting the market ahead of CIT seemed like a pretty smart thing to do. So smart that people were taking shots at Federal Realty (NYSE: FRT) (Cramer's Take) even though its occupancy rate is high and its tenants diverse and healthy (anchors typically are food chains who certainly didn't need CIT).
So if you are short Federal Realty or Vornado (NYSE: VNO) (Cramer's Take) or any of the REIT ETFs, today will be a scramble day. If you are short the S&P 500 for the headline risk of CIT going under, you are scrambling.
Another day of scrambling for the shorts. This time they are paying up in an overbought market, a good chance to lighten up typically.
They are stuck.
The bulls benefit.
So be it.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-20-2009 @ 1:01PM
ebrandler34 said...
O.K., so the Bulls win .... for now. But if I had to bet, since most of the talking heads say DOW 9500 is closer than DOW 8000, I will stay on the sidelines for now.
This is all smoke and mirrors until we see sales-based profits, not tax rate adjustments, asset sales, and cost cutting.