According to Boxofficemojo, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince was the top film at the domestic box office over the three-day weekend. I'm sure this didn't surprise Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) shareholders. The latest installment of the popular fantasy series took in about $79 million as of early estimates. However, Prince actually opened last Wednesday. If you add in monies derived from the Wednesday and Thursday showings, you've got a gross of about $159 million so far.
This compares favorably to Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, which opened in July 2007. Phoenix made just under $140 million during its five-day debut. I like such growth. It shows that the franchise retains a good quantity of demand.
However, we'll have to wait to see if Time Warner can truly take advantage of this opening. The cumulative domestic gross of the last Harry Potter flick was about the same as the cumulative domestic gross of the movie that preceded it. There wasn't much sequential growth between those two.
This doesn't mean that Harry Potter isn't a valuable franchise for Time Warner. It is, of course. It's just that the market always likes to see growth. It pays up for growth. And without knowing how the financial deals for the movies have evolved over time, it's difficult for a shareholder to figure out exactly how much economic value has been derived by the studio from the franchise.
Still, Time Warner is having a nice summer. The number-five film this past weekend, The Hangover, has been a great winner for the company. A relatively inexpensive comedy that seemed to come out of nowhere, it has grossed about $235 million after several weeks of release. Viacom (NYSE: VIA) isn't doing too badly, either. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen has over $360 million in the bank at this point, and I think a $400 million domestic gross is well within reach.
Unfortunately, General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal might not be so happy about Sacha Baron Cohen's Bruno. Last week, the movie was in first place. This week, it fell to fourth place after experiencing a hideous drop in box office momentum and it is in a tight race with the next two movies ranked below it for that position (three movies each grossed about $8.3 million, so we'll have to see where the projects end up once final statistics are released). Bruno was supposed to do better than this, in my opinion, although I'm sure the powers that be over at NBC Universal will spin this one in some way.
As for investment ideas, I'd love to see Time Warner's stock experience a great pullback. Might make for a nice trade. Until that happens, though, I'll have to merely watch the shares from the sidelines. And I'll be watching how the new film from everyone's favorite wizard performs next weekend. The second weekend out is usually a good indication of the marketplace's reaction to a particular project.
Disclosure: I own GE; positions can change without notice.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-20-2009 @ 10:20AM
Dan Barnett said...
Steve,
Don't get too complacent with the Potter franchise. It's pretty much run its' course. The actors are getting too old to continue to play teenagers. One secondary actor has been busted for growing (illegal substance) in the back seat of his car?! Another secondary actor has been killed in a bar brawl. Racy pictures of the female lead actress are all over the internet & if she turns up pregnant...
Even so, there are at best two more movies to be made. Beyond that the Potter franchise's future is unclear. Don't bet the farm here. The last two flicks will do fine but beyond that, I think you will be hard pressed to see the "growth" you seek.
Bruno was just a lousy movie. But what is keeping Transformers around?