AOL Money & Finance

Time Warner's Q2 is coming up: What should we look for?

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Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), a media company that competes with Disney (NYSE: DIS), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, will report second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, July 29. The call is for 37 cents per share, according to Earnings.com.

It will be interesting to see if Time Warner beats estimates, but I'm going to be more interested in reading about a few other things in the upcoming press release. First, I want to know how cash flow is doing -- is Time Warner generating enough of the green stuff to ensure strategic flexibility? Second, I'll be noting what management says about AOL (parent company of BloggingStocks). Recently, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) sold its investment in the online portal back to Time Warner.

Third, I'll want to know about content and advertising. Concerning content, I'd like to see what Time Warner's plans are to maximize content distribution in an age when digital distribution is growing (but hard to monetize) and DVD revenues are, at best, very challenged. In terms of advertising, how is management continuing to deal with sales in the midst of the gloomy downturn? Yes, the debate rages on when it comes to the recession and its potential conversion into a recovery, but things are still tough, and I expect management to remain cautious on this front.

Shares of Time Warner have been rather resilient in the last few months. I've been watching the stock for a long time, wanting to get in, but just never getting the pullback I was seeking.

Will we see a pullback this week upon the earnings news? Very hard to say. Last quarter, Time Warner beat expectations. The market's reaction? Shares were bid higher.

But I'm just not inclined to make any bets this time around. Even if Time Warner beats, there's the guidance to consider. I think a lot of traders are looking for reasons to book profits now. They could subjectively interpret a decent earnings report and a not-so-bad outlook as an excuse to sell.

So I won't be doing an earnings trade with Time Warner. I'll simply sit back and enjoy the release with no pressure. I hope management does provide some good insights into its content. Someone on the conference call will hopefully ask what strategies are under consideration to reduce the cost and distribution of movies and television shows. That's really the key to a content company's success -- fighting the inflation of content costs associated with rising talent compensation. As an investor in media, I am keenly aware of how expensive content can limit shareholder value. I hope Time Warner's management is equally aware of this issue.

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 08:56 PM

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