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Under Armour turns apparel into performance in the second quarter

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Solid performance in the earnings spotlight from Under Armour (NYSE: UA), as the company reported a surprising profit of three cents per share. Under Armour's earnings topped the consensus estimate for a loss of two cents per share and matched the company's year-ago results. Quarterly revenue increased to $164.6 million from $156.7 million a year ago.

The results were driven by a 16.5% increase ($112 million) in clothing revenue, which compensated for an 18.4% drop ($37.5 million) in footwear from a year ago. Looking ahead, Under Armour forecast 2009 earnings between 80 and 82 cents per share, better than the consensus estimate for earnings of 79 cents per share. As far as revenue is concerned, the Maryland-based firm expects $810 million compared to $804.9 from the Street.

The stock was more than 4% higher in early trading thanks to this estimate-beating performance. What does this mean for the equity's long-term prospects? I was bullish on Under Armour a year ago, and the stock rebuffed my bullish feelings -- that said, I could never turn straight-up bearish on the stock. I have always liked the company's fundamentals and the grip it has on the performance-apparel market. Under Armour has long been the innovator when it comes to performance apparel, not an imitator. Let's take a look at footwear as an example. When one thinks of performance footwear, what company comes to mind? Nike (NYSE: NKE), Reebok, Adidas, perhaps Brooks and Asics, right? Well, let's play that word association game with performance apparel. Is the first company that comes to mind Under Armour? I bet it is one of the first, if not the first. With football season (a.k.a. the most wonderful time of the year) around the corner, you can bet that plenty of players will be getting Under Armour equipment to wear under their pads. Yes, maybe Nike has taken a bit of the market share away, but Under Armour is still the top dog in performance apparel.

That is the fundamental reason why I like Under Armour, but what about the stock's technical acumen? This is where I am a bit less-than-enthusiastic when it comes to the company. Since 2007 when UA peaked in the $72 region, the stock has fallen to its current position in the mid-$20s. Today's push has UA in the $27 region to be exact, and it could signal that the stock is ready to make a run at $30. Here is the problem -- history suggests that the stock will be rejected as it tries to power higher. However, there is evidence that the stock may catch a bit of support from its 10-week moving average. With the stock currently using its 50-week trendline as support, it appears to be waiting for the 10-week trendline to catch up. Should this trendline complete a bullish cross of its 50-week counterpart (which certainly appears possible), it could signal a run higher for the shares -- as such a formation is often a precursor to a run higher. This 10-week average has helped usher the stock higher since March, and it appears ready to help the stock continue to reach its lofty goals. Is a run to $72 likely? No, but it isn't impossible. It is far more likely that UA can find some technical support to combine with its fundamental strength to push the stock higher, perhaps challenging the upper $30/lower $40 region. It is time to wait and see if shares of Under Armour can truly perform.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 09:50 AM

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