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Time Warner tops the Q2 estimates, but is it a trade yet?

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Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) issued Q2 results today and they were ... okay. I wouldn't call them great, but I wouldn't say they were anything approaching a disaster, either. In fact, the market looks like its sharing my opinion about them to a degree. Shares of Time Warner are trading down as of this writing by about 2% in afternoon trading. That's not a good thing for investors in the company, but at the same time, at least shares aren't being destroyed by a high single-digit percentage loss.

On an adjusted basis, Time Warner earned 45 cents per share from continuing operations according to the press release (that link leads to a .pdf file, please note). Last year at this time, the media conglomerate earned 47 cents per share from continuing activities. The good news? Expectations were beat. Analysts were looking for somewhere around 37 cents per share.


Another bit of good news can be found in the statement of cash flows. Yes, Time Warner saw a decline in cash from operations. However, I don't believe it is anything to worry about. The amount of green stuff generated was certainly enough to take care of the dividend obligation.

The thing I don't like from the report centers on the issue of home video. Media companies such as The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS), General Electric Corporation's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA), and News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS) are all dealing with the conundrum of a slowing DVD market. And then there's the bad advertising market. According to this Reuters article, comments made by management don't sound encouraging.

Basically, Time Warner's second quarter is a familiar story. It's a company doing what it can to protect cash flows during a downturn. But it's also a company that has to address some serious fundamental problems when it comes to the core business of content distribution. I've talked about this before: the media sector has to make aggressive adjustments to the costs associated with producing and selling content. There's still a long way to go on that front.

Nothing from the earnings report makes me want to buy the stock, and in fact, if I held shares at a profitable cost basis right now, I'd probably book some of the gains. As I've said recently, though, I have found Time Warner's price action very interesting this year, and I am keeping it on a watch list. When it experiences a pullback of awesome proportions (today's action doesn't qualify), then I'll be inclined to consider the company more seriously as a trade.

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 10:04 AM

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