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Cramer on BloggingStocks: You can't afford to be certain

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if you wait for market conditions to reach perfection, you'll be waiting a long time.

You know what? I am going to wait until I am sure housing has turned before I buy the homebuilders like Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take). I am going to wait until the foreclosures peak before I buy Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take).

I am going to wait until unemployment goes down before I buy 3M (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take) and Disney (NYSE: DIS) (Cramer's Take) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) (Cramer's Take) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take).


I am going to wait until auto sales go above 10 million before I buy Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take). I am going to wait until land lines turn positive before I buy Verizon (NYSE: NYSE: VZ) (Cramer's Take) or AT&T (NYSE: T) (Cramer's Take).

I am going to wait until consumer spending turns up before I buy Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take) or Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) (Cramer's Take) or Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) (Cramer's Take) or Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) (Cramer's Take).

I am going to wait until I see actual up year-over-year earnings before I pull the trigger on a Federal Express (NYSE: FDX) (Cramer's Take) or a UPS (NYSE: UPS) (Cramer's Take). I am going to wait until rail-car loadings go positive before I buy Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) (Cramer's Take) or Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) (Cramer's Take).

I am going to wait until natural gas prices go up to $6 on real demand before I buy Anadarko (NYSE: APC) (Cramer's Take) or Devon (NYSE: DVN) (Cramer's Take). I am going to wait until oil goes back over $80 before I buy Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) (Cramer's Take) and Transocean (NYSE: RIG) (Cramer's Take). So what if Apache (NYSE: APA) (Cramer's Take) blew away the numbers? I want them all to blow away the numbers before I wade back in.

I am going to wait until health care reform is actually killed before I buy Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) (Cramer's Take) or Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) (Cramer's Take) or Medco Health (NYSE: MHS) (Cramer's Take).

I am going to wait until I see actual top-line growth before I buy any cyclical. I am going to wait until the Fed tells us that things are at last stable before I buy any stock.

There. That's what I see and read and hear on TV and intensely on this show. People who are going to wait. People who want the all-clear to be sounded. People who believe you can wait.

These are the people who will qualify any call of house-price stabilization. They will say that it is only first-time homebuyers. They will point to particular regions where things haven't bottomed: St, Louis, Philadelphia, Brooklyn. So what if it is only first-time homebuyers? The thing you need to watch is inventory. As long as existing-home inventory is going down, then the banks will not have to dump their homes at a loss, which is all that really matters. You need to remember that housing in itself can't cause a depression, it is housing bonds or defaulted mortgages on the banks' books and those are going to get better not worse, which is something you cannot wait to have happen before you buy WFC or BAC or JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) -- not Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) because it doesn't have that much mortgage exposure.)

Of course you can wait for anything. That's fine with me.

But what matters isn't purity or certainty in this business. Because if you wait, you will come in at a much higher level and make much less money.

You know something, there is such a thing as being too skeptical. There is such a thing as being too cynical.

That's what so many people are here. They look for reasons not to buy, and if they can't find them, they look for more. They don't believe in moves that are happening and have already had. They don't believe in how bottoms are formed. They don't believe in how real estate cycles bottom, and they fight over things that are already finished and declared won by those who bought.

If this were a game about being certain, I will be absolutely dead wrong about everything. Every single thing I write and say.

But it isn't.

It is a game of having a worldview, of anticipation, of making wagers based on previous patterns that have panned out before.

It's an uncomfortable situation. It's so easy to be wrong. But to be certain is to be wrong, per se.

I don't write this to antagonize. I write it simply because you can't afford to be certain, you have never been able to be certain, and make a lot of money.

Those who want to be certain should buy two-year notes, not bonds. Better yet, go buy CDs.

Sorry to be blunt. But certainty is the most dangerous quality you can get if you are trying to beat the market.

Unless, of course, you aren't.

Random musings: How can Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC) (Cramer's Take) and Hartford (NYSE: HIG) (Cramer's Take) be running with all of that commercial real estate on the books? Maybe it's not that bad? Boy would that fly in the face of everything you've heard. ... I love those Apache guys. So solid.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long BAC, WFC, JPM, HPQ and DVN.
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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 04:00 AM

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