What happened to the economy in the second quarter? While the numbers show that the contraction in GDP was only 1%, it nevertheless was a negative number.
Here is a breakdown of some key numbers:
- GDP fell 1% in the second quarter after falling 6.4% in the previous quarter.
- Residential investment fell 29.3%, after falling 39.2% in the first quarter.
- Business investment dropped 8.9% after a slide of 39.2% in the first quarter.
- Inventories fell a record $141.1 billion dollars after falling $113.9 billion in the first quarter.
- Consumer spending fell 1.2% compared with a rise of .6% in the first quarter.
- Exports fell 7% after a sharp drop of 29.9% in the first quarter.
Did we do better in the second quarter than the first quarter? Obviously, the answer is "not really." Are we out of the woods? No. There is not a single positive number in the report. Although we are still in a recession, the numbers are not as alarming as they were in the first quarter. That doesn't do much to make us feel happy.
While the Federal Reserve has pledged to spend $12.2 trillion dollars to bail out the financial sector, very little is being done to help the consumer. The consumer has been left adrift with little or no support. Why do we need to do something about the consumer. Well for one thing, consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP. As long as the Federal Reserve keeps spending $12.2 trillion to bail out the banks and does practically nothing to help the consumer, this economy will remain stuck in reverse or neutral. Why the Fed is so short-sighted and skews their programs for the financial sector is a major policy issue. Bernake can go on road trips all he wants, but that does nothing but potentially cause more anger and resentment among average Americans. It's the average American who is struggling to make ends meet.
What kind of program could be in place to help the American consumer survive?











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-01-2009 @ 12:58PM
Stylinexpat said...
COnsumer spending is going to get worse with all those credit card companies either reducing credit card lines of credit or even closing them down and add rising unemployment.. I just don't see how from a consumers point of view things are going to get better. So far the government has helped the financial institutions but has not helped the consumers.
There are plenty of retails shopping centers with vacant shops that have for rent or lease signs on them, restaurants and shops are pretty much empty during busy lunch hours and dinner time. The only retail shop I see that is busy in shopping malls is Apple lol...
8-01-2009 @ 3:19PM
ij70 said...
(sarcasm on) Ma'am, if you want some good news about economy, please read Mr. Lazzaro articles that he post on this website. (sarcasm off)
8-01-2009 @ 6:46PM
Iridium said...
You forgot to mention that the only reason why the number was -1% is due to the trade gap. Imports fell by such a large ammount that compared to exports it actually added around 2% to GDP.
The real GDP number measured by M2 or M3 is far worse that Q1.
Just take a look at that inventory number -$141 billion. Oh yeah the reccesion is over, we're going to have big spending ahead.
Car dealerships still have 2008s on the lots. The 2010s are coming in and they haven't even sold half of the 2009s. That is the real reason why "Cash for Suckers" was passed. Ford, GM, and Chrysler needed to sell whole lots full of 2009 trucks. They were all under union contracts to build X number of 2010s even though they weren't needed.
THAT IS WHY "CASH FOR SUCKERS" HEAVILY FAVORS TRUCKS OVER FUEL EFFICIENT VEHICLES.
I don't know why other people haven't figured that out.
8-01-2009 @ 7:46PM
sgentilejr said...
I doubt that there is anyone gullible enough to believe that Gross Domestic Product fell by only 1% in the past 3 months.
New home sales are down 30% from last year. Auto sales are down 30% from last year. Unemployment is up to 9.5% from 5.9% last year. The total number of people on unemployment is up to 6.5 million from 3 million last year. The number of passengers on commercial airlines is down 15%. Sales tax revenue in California is down by 30% as is income tax collections on wages earned since last year.
Anyone dumb enough to believe GDP is only down 1% from the same months last year are probably the same gullible brain dead people who actually believed Richard Nixon when he said "I am not a crook" and who believed Bill Clinton when he said " I did not have sex with Monica".
8-01-2009 @ 10:28PM
william lindblad said...
As I have said in the past - statistics can be deceptive
GDP aside, let's take a look at what is really out here. Wall St. has maintained a steady rise based mostly on "profit" presentations from the business community. Some of the for casts reflect weakness for many quarters, while others seem much more bullish. All in all, the news is not good, but it is not really bad either. After all, they are all getting there through "cost cutting measures" which as a general rule, means further layoffs. Now for the interesting point. Retired people are on a fixed income. People on public assistance are on fixed income. People on the unemployment role are on fixed income. There is nothing wrong with any of this unless we are confronted with a period of inflationary tendencies. No need to get alarmed as the Fed does not foresee anything to worry about. Folks, there is one problem with the governments idea of inflation and that is simply "core" and "other". Core is oil, food and your utility bills and they don't count. Buying ipods, tv's and fixing your car does. Maybe I am an old jackass, but I do think that somebody has something screwed up. (It's probably deliberate as us morons don't know the difference anyway)
Anybody been to the grocery store lately? There is currently a long and large drought in Texas and real screwy temps in the Northwest. All of this equates to one thing - nothing is going down. The oil markets are flighty, but right now there going up. The Prez wants the power companies, especially the ones burning coal, to clean up their act and has mandated this to happen. It's a good idea, but the timing stinks as it is going to happen on the backs of the consumer. We get to pay for it. Wait until you get your 2010 bills. It's all real interesting as I want to know how you get the mass of people that are now on fixed income, with more coming, to get back to supporting an economy at a 70% level?
The question of the blog was is there are fix?
Yes - The voting booth. When, if ever, the U.S. public gets smart enough to rid themselves of the likes of Franks, Dodd, Waxman and the host of others that are making the mass of the country live hard - than we might get somewhere. This is not about Republicans nor Democrats, this is about sorting out those that still look to have integrity or honesty. Keeping people in office that do no do their job or have questionable ties to financial or business interests - are not in yours, nor mine, interests.
Pay attention to the action - November is coming.
s
8-01-2009 @ 11:36PM
Kent said...
A 1% drop in GDP averages out to be about $1500 less spending per U.S. household annually or about $30/week.
8-02-2009 @ 3:31AM
sumokurt1 said...
AIG gets $182 billion. Ordinary Americans get 40-year mortgages. Still lovin' Obama?