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Nintendo and the Wii have tough quarter -- should investors stay away?

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Well, it had to happen sometime. Nothing lasts forever, right? Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) and its fabulous Wii system are no longer hot. To be certain, the Wii is still very, very popular. But from an investing/trading standpoint, you've got to sit up and take notice of the story and highlight not only how it's changed, but how it may change in the near future.

According to Bloomberg, Nintendo's top line decreased 40%, while the profit line tumbled a little over 60%. The Wii unfortunately took a huge hit to its momentum: sales of the console, which competes with Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, plunged 57% in terms of units. Besides issues relating to the fad and its possible death, the yen, as expected, also had an effect on Nintendo's prospects.

As Anthony Massucci over at Daily Finance makes clear, the Wii's competitive advantage may be over. And, without a doubt, the stock is completely unattractive now. Except ...

Let's think about the situation. Nintendo really has no positive catalyst at the moment. If there are any catalysts available to the company or its stock, they would most certainly be negative in nature. One might expect that, as the news about the Wii and Nintendo's profit situation becomes fully digested, the price of the ADRs might get closer to the 52-week low, and perhaps fall below it.

However, calls for a price cut on the Wii by retailers and other observers might step up in intensity. If so, does that mean Nintendo will reduce the price of the Wii sooner rather than later? That, in theory, would be actionable news from a trading perspective.

I therefore would keep an eye on Nintendo's ADRs. If the price action doesn't deteriorate further (and, quite frankly, I think it's been actually good considering the news), and if one had risk capital to deploy, then a speculative bet on the announcement of a price cut might be an interesting move.

Problem is, who knows when (or if) that will happen. I'm getting the feeling, though, that Nintendo may finally realize that it can no longer be stubborn about reducing the $250 price tag on the Wii. But that's just a guess, keep in mind. I have no way of knowing.

No matter what, the key takeaway is this: buying Nintendo now might not be the best decision for most investors. You'd be speculating to some degree. So there's nothing wrong with staying away from the company until you see how the story continues to develop.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 11:46 AM

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