M&A revving for a comeback?


So far this year, it's been miserable for M&A bankers, which makes sense. If you look back at prior recessions, there was always a big fall in M&A activity. Buyers don't want to take the risks and sellers want higher valuations.

According to Reuters, global M&A volume was about $968 billion this year as of June. This is down more than 40% since 2007, which was a peak in dealmaking.

So, should we expect a comeback? Probably, but the return is likely to be steady. After all, the recession has been brutal – and so has the credit crunch. If anything, lending should remain relatively tight.

However, perhaps the biggest help has been the nice rally in the equities markets. This builds confidence and makes valuations more palatable.

Also, global companies have lots of cash on their balance sheets. As cost-cutting has its limits, why not boost revenues via acquisitions?

Finally, there was some hopeful news from Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), which reported strong quarterly results last week. The company's CEO, Bruce Wasserstein, is definitely seeing signs of return. But again, he thinks it will be gradual and take four or more years to get back to the hot-and-heavy levels of prior booms.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The IPO Primer and The Complete M&A Handbook. He is also the co-founder of Phitch, which provides inventory management software for small and medium size businesses.

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