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Marvel tops estimates, but decline in licensing sales pulls down profit

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I keep watching Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL), waiting (or maybe "hoping" would be the better term) for a great pullback to get in on the action. I never seem to get it. Who knows, maybe it'll happen later today. But as of Tuesday's close, Marvel was still above $40 per share after dropping less than 1%. And that was after the traders digested the company's Q2 earnings report. That, in my opinion, is telling.

Marvel has always been the kind of stock that can throw you for a loop. I know, because I've owned it before. Is it me, or is the market getting increasingly comfortable with the company's business model of taking risk in the movie industry? Maybe it's too early to tell. At any rate, according to the press release, Marvel saw big decreases in both sales and per-share income. The top line dropped 26%, while the bottom line fell 37% to 37 cents per share. Marvel beat earnings estimates by 6 cents per share according to Reuters.

As management makes clear, the comparisons were expected to be tough. They're not spinning the situation. Last year, you had the Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk films affecting the licensing situation. In this case, the income slide is completely understandable.

Make your way over to the statement of cash flows. Net cash from operating activities jumped mightily, like a superhero souped-up from the radioactive venom of some experimental mutant insect. For the six-month period, operational cash flow rose 160%! A couple big driving factors of the gain include deferred income taxes and accounts receivable.

Honestly, I would have expected more profit-taking on the news. Is the strong bullish sentiment on Wall Street responsible for the appreciation in Marvel's stock price this year? If so, that's a risk, since the rally should correct at some point (I know, I know, I've been saying that every single day, but you know you're just as worried about that as I am).

Here's how I feel about Marvel. If you can stomach the risk of incorrect timing and are willing to add to a position with sideline cash to improve cost basis, then I think you should definitely look at the stock. We'll see the Iron Man sequel in 2010. Then, in 2011, comes Thor, The First Avenger: Captain America, and the next Spider-Man film, the latter to be released by Sony (NYSE: SNE). The 2011 slate seems mighty crowded, but I guess that's the plan for now. You may want to try and get in on the Marvel thesis before all the aforementioned excitement comes to pass. As far as I'm concerned, the Marvel story is still with us, and it could be getting better.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 07:38 AM

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