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Greenspan: A value-added tax (VAT) may be in the U.S.'s future

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Will entitlement reform and an increase in existing federal income taxes be enough to close the U.S. budget deficit (pdf)?

If the right conditions line up, perhaps, but former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan suggests that ultimately the pressures on Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid may be so great that the nation is compelled to add a new revenue source: a value-added tax.

VAT: upside, downside

A value-added tax acts as a sort of national consumption tax on a product or service. It can be applied to some or all stages of production and consumption.

The VAT revenue upside? Popular in many European economies, a VAT is one revenue mode that would increase federal revenue by a substantial amount.

The VAT downside? It would represent another cost of doing business in the United States -- something that, in the globalization era, would make the nation less-attractive to investors vis-à-vis other, lower-tax regions of the world.

Hence, absent a successful attempt to balance the federal budget under its existing revenue/outlay framework, there are few easy solutions for Congress: either incur large deficits, or pass a VAT or comparable tax with the risk of seeing more investors pick other economies ahead of the United States for their deployment of new investment capital.

Financial Editor Joseph Lazzaro is writing a book on the U.S. presidency and the U.S. economy.

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Last updated: November 23, 2009: 02:38 AM

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