The unemployment rate fell from 9.4% to 9.5% last month, with the number of positions cut falling almost by half -- from 442,000 in June to 247,000 in July. This was the first dip in the unemployment rate in 15 months.
So, it's starting to look like the economy is turning the corner ... or at least trying. But, when you look at what a recovery will have to entail, only one word comes to mind: painful.
An estimated 7 million workers have been booted from their desks during this recession. In total, 15 million people are without jobs right now. Of this number, 4.4 million (29%) have been unemployed for more than six months, a jump from 2.6 million in February. An estimated 540,000 will run out of unemployment benefits by the end of September, with 1.5 million reaching that point by the end of the year.
While the economy wouldn't have to absorb all these people, most of them would have to find their ways into the workforce -- with positions and incomes roughly equivalent to those they lost.
If 125,000 new jobs were created every month, the minimum pace needed to keep the workforce growing, it would take 10 years to reintegrate the 15 million people currently sitting on the sidelines. Even if we hit the 400,000/month level seen during the 2007 peak, it would take two years for the 7 million people who lost their jobs because of this recession to get back, and another two years for the rest. Yet, few economists believe we'll hit the aggressive job growth of 2007.
When a recovery happens, it will take time. It won't be easy.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-09-2009 @ 8:14PM
plankton81 said...
No jobs mean no recovery, the media spin cannot change that.
8-10-2009 @ 8:30AM
Kevin said...
Mistake: The unemployment rate fell from 9.4% to 9.5% last month. Should be fell from 9.5% to 9.4%....but I ask you how can unemployment go down percentage wise while the number of unemployed people goes up? Typical goverment playing with the numbers....just like Ford sold more Focus's with the cash for clunkers when in real numbers they sold more SUV's!!!!! Ford Escape's????? How in the hell can you trust the goverment when they talk out of both sides of their mouths...........2010 vote them all out!! Then they will wake up and take notice of what "We the People" are saying!
8-18-2009 @ 12:33PM
Mary said...
It certainly will be painful. Especially for us under 30 where the unemployment rate is almost double the national rate. Who knows how long it will take for us to "recover"
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